{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92dc1254-38e6-4f18-abdb-0cea5350f509", "symbol": "300973", "name": "Ligao Foods Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.935, "architecture_energy": 51.006, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.506, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 28.66, "upward_expansion": 8.66, "deceleration": 60.95, "rotation_down": 46.2, "downward_expansion": 79.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.484, 24.59716, 25.904152, 28.328904 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.84, "trend_reference": 32.368862, "distance_from_trend": -0.232596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.565779, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.372185, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.416614, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.448, "excess_performance": -0.4554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.372185, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.354166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093896, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.448, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.49431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14278572, "relative_activity": 1.282477, "balance": 0.49431, "dry_up": 1.619624, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097494, "annualized_volatility": 0.425087, "from_high_reference": -0.537331, "from_low_reference": 0.13945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.368862, "fair_value_reference": 39.565779, "structural_low": 21.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.055222, "positive_rate": 0.28, "directional_follow_through": 0.72, "median_excess_return": -0.049407, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 0.421777, "worst_return": -0.178579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.12977, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.049007, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.615279, "worst_return": -0.293794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.310741, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.264174, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.405832, "worst_return": -0.362663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -43.281134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.594733, "energy": 66.768585, "activity_lines": [ 24.963308, 25.461314, 27.755644, 30.800546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.33, "volume": 16059563, "typical_volume": 10120203.3, "trend": 34.213195, "fair_value": 40.273588, "relative_strength": -37.132837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.552049, "energy": 63.949353, "activity_lines": [ 24.7801, 25.131091, 27.180283, 30.133243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.950001, "volume": 17789681, "typical_volume": 10456683.2, "trend": 33.569862, "fair_value": 40.018749, "relative_strength": -42.53444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.267915, "energy": 68.565832, "activity_lines": [ 23.857333, 24.45987, 26.462636, 29.342069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.0, "volume": 24001093, "typical_volume": 11080568.35, "trend": 32.974195, "fair_value": 39.79234, "relative_strength": -29.888571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.027177, "energy": 57.110588, "activity_lines": [ 24.410667, 24.627904, 26.212656, 28.853691 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.84, "volume": 14278572, "typical_volume": 11133587.65, "trend": 32.368862, "fair_value": 39.565779, "relative_strength": -35.416614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.934852, "energy": 51.005508, "activity_lines": [ 24.484, 24.59716, 25.904152, 28.328904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }