{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92df68c7-e2de-4875-9354-d4d61fe982c8", "symbol": "GHYE", "name": "Amundi Glb HY Corp Bd ESG $ Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.499, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.086, "architecture_energy": 37.996, "architecture_maturity": 78.231, "architecture_confidence": 61.956, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.53, "rotation_up": 37.86, "upward_expansion": 68.82, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 27.56, "downward_expansion": 18.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.748, 21.782818, 21.656929, 21.544763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.745001, "trend_reference": 21.4155, "distance_from_trend": 0.015386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.966764, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037118, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.617967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027647, "excess_performance": -0.143245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015386, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010229, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037118, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018115, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027647, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.75843, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27193, "relative_activity": 1.883028, "balance": 0.75843, "dry_up": 1.771437, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007181, "annualized_volatility": 0.046043, "from_high_reference": -0.111335, "from_low_reference": 0.059956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.4155, "fair_value_reference": 20.966764, "structural_low": 20.945, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009061, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008447, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.023375, "worst_return": -0.005253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.802862, "energy": 73.038353, "activity_lines": [ 21.845, 21.797454, 21.616, 21.506279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.635, "volume": 49766, "typical_volume": 14207.3, "trend": 21.401, "fair_value": 20.959815, "relative_strength": -10.821552, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.059852, "energy": 47.100566, "activity_lines": [ 21.769667, 21.781727, 21.631976, 21.52257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.745001, "volume": 27193, "typical_volume": 14441.1, "trend": 21.4155, "fair_value": 20.966764, "relative_strength": -12.617967, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.085842, "energy": 37.996206, "activity_lines": [ 21.748, 21.782818, 21.656929, 21.544763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }