{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92e02942-eb6e-4174-b7c6-faa97a33ba12", "symbol": "200550", "name": "Jiangling Motors Corporation, Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.615, "architecture_energy": 22.87, "architecture_maturity": 68.306, "architecture_confidence": 80.502, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.09, "rotation_up": 26.97, "upward_expansion": 15.59, "deceleration": 46.8, "rotation_down": 28.29, "downward_expansion": 63.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.327556, 9.259261, 9.446416, 9.579173 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.36, "trend_reference": 9.705794, "distance_from_trend": -0.035628, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.859545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.824607, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.049746, "excess_performance": -0.057146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163434, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049746, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.001945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1248500, "relative_activity": 1.251449, "balance": 1.001945, "dry_up": 1.333753, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036633, "annualized_volatility": 0.137769, "from_high_reference": -0.160901, "from_low_reference": 0.048237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.705794, "fair_value_reference": 8.859545, "structural_low": 8.929277, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.008341, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.032934, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.180645, "worst_return": -0.177931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046201, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.011141, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.142478, "worst_return": -0.124841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049527, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.041522, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.142489, "worst_return": -0.150318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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902965.75, "trend": 9.764127, "fair_value": 8.782237, "relative_strength": -8.54624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.526667, "energy": 64.405375, "activity_lines": [ 9.135448, 9.244741, 9.539423, 9.654144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.32, "volume": 1416198, "typical_volume": 934145.65, "trend": 9.742794, "fair_value": 8.809273, "relative_strength": -8.094626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.293227, "energy": 46.387426, "activity_lines": [ 9.193071, 9.232308, 9.501834, 9.625491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.39, "volume": 989640, "typical_volume": 967394.7, "trend": 9.725127, "fair_value": 8.836498, "relative_strength": -5.488173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.540447, "energy": 32.697472, "activity_lines": [ 9.277869, 9.244421, 9.474149, 9.60273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.36, "volume": 1248500, "typical_volume": 997643.3, "trend": 9.705794, "fair_value": 8.859545, "relative_strength": -9.824607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.615209, "energy": 22.870008, "activity_lines": [ 9.327556, 9.259261, 9.446416, 9.579173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }