{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92e1acf4-c23a-4597-b0f3-6c1718725b14", "symbol": "AZM", "name": "Azimut Holding S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.182, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.52, "architecture_energy": 52.91, "architecture_maturity": 23.891, "architecture_confidence": 68.426, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.65, "rotation_up": 54.09, "upward_expansion": 78.11, "deceleration": 63.35, "rotation_down": 23.54, "downward_expansion": 7.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.797334, 36.522182, 35.795564, 34.967887 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.450001, "trend_reference": 34.217548, "distance_from_trend": 0.123692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.165796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.527867, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.822567, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.130099, "excess_performance": -0.044148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.123692, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.527867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092199, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010625, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130099, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.151943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 557, "relative_activity": 1.03282, "balance": 3.151943, "dry_up": 1.733265, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036505, "annualized_volatility": 0.24522, "from_high_reference": -0.008509, "from_low_reference": 0.370335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.217548, "fair_value_reference": 25.165796, "structural_low": 29.078128, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.001423, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.001446, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.091863, "worst_return": -0.104043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03829, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155123, "worst_return": -0.114094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049005, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000977, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.164137, "worst_return": -0.234434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041466, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.120902, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.339549, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126854, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030029, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044837, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.458336, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.35, "trend": 16.82247, "fair_value": 15.235817, "relative_strength": 11.611681, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.389787, 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"typical_volume": 513.85, "trend": 33.982486, "fair_value": 24.915259, "relative_strength": -11.226161, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.003322, "energy": 30.875489, "activity_lines": [ 35.670667, 35.886182, 35.168495, 34.504506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.799999, "volume": 2333, "typical_volume": 511.45, "trend": 34.085101, "fair_value": 25.03385, "relative_strength": -6.236194, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.894654, "energy": 34.378891, "activity_lines": [ 35.996667, 36.073636, 35.418158, 34.686281 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.450001, "volume": 557, "typical_volume": 539.3, "trend": 34.217548, "fair_value": 25.165796, "relative_strength": -4.822567, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.519878, "energy": 52.910193, "activity_lines": [ 36.797334, 36.522182, 35.795564, 34.967887 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }