{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "92e31fe1-b2a3-45b9-9ea6-a561ac404ae0",
    "symbol": "UTTAMSUGAR",
    "name": "Uttam Sugar Mills Limited",
    "exchange": "NSI",
    "country": "IN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NSEI",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 65.7,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 40.968,
    "architecture_energy": 16.864,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.543,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.443,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.42,
        "rotation_up": 37.57,
        "upward_expansion": 52.28,
        "deceleration": 62.71,
        "rotation_down": 23.68,
        "downward_expansion": 22.95
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        236.261337,
        234.928548,
        238.112478,
        235.618109
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 252.770004,
    "trend_reference": 230.281668,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.097656,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 296.120234,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146394,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 6.654409,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.178635,
    "excess_performance": 0.222344,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.097656,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010048,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.146394,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019493,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066544,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031305,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.178635,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.496735,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1640834,
      "relative_activity": 2.21468,
      "balance": 1.496735,
      "dry_up": 0.859358,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.072565,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.404458,
      "from_high_reference": -0.146558,
      "from_low_reference": 0.395748
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 230.281668,
      "fair_value_reference": 296.120234,
      "structural_low": 181.100006,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.038452,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013758,
        "regime_survival": 0.533333,
        "best_return": 0.261268,
        "worst_return": -0.088715,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.023178,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.042768,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.412007,
        "worst_return": -0.283204,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.132263,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.090148,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.61601,
        "worst_return": -0.243574,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.147146,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.059215,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.414057,
        "worst_return": -0.119766,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-01-19",
        "end": "2024-02-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.033799,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.045627,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.110476,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.077874,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.03058,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.065559,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.094992,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.035823,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.172165,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": 0.089285,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.040284,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.068917,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008612,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.069247,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 228.460007,
        "volume": 256947,
        "typical_volume": 758128.8,
        "trend": 230.733334,
        "fair_value": 297.46888,
        "relative_strength": -0.512532,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 222.330002,
        "volume": 196149,
        "typical_volume": 731592.8,
        "trend": 229.704335,
        "fair_value": 296.609887,
        "relative_strength": -5.376879,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.184982,
        "energy": 27.836626,
        "activity_lines": [
          229.09667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 252.770004,
        "volume": 1640834,
        "typical_volume": 740890.0,
        "trend": 230.281668,
        "fair_value": 296.120234,
        "relative_strength": 6.654409,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.967513,
        "energy": 16.863622,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}