{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92e57faa-1546-410c-85e2-b0e22425572e", "symbol": "00676R", "name": "Fubon TAIEX Daily -1X Inverse ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.957, "architecture_energy": 37.586, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.358, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.89, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 23.81, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 31.31, "downward_expansion": 60.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.801333, 5.747636, 5.905095, 6.27957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.77, "trend_reference": 6.826333, "distance_from_trend": -0.154744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.91891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.766548, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.291155, "excess_performance": -0.670467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.507665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091186, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291155, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.83403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50868016, "relative_activity": 1.419293, "balance": 0.83403, "dry_up": 1.732845, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057059, "annualized_volatility": 0.287434, "from_high_reference": -0.497387, "from_low_reference": 0.064576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.826333, "fair_value_reference": 5.91891, "structural_low": 5.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.014085, "positive_rate": 0.325581, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.027339, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 5.09901, "worst_return": -0.168553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.070156, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.122784, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 4.953052, "worst_return": -0.287371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.05342, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.086723, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 4.560976, "worst_return": -0.250965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-66.455097, "energy": 66.525706, "activity_lines": [ 5.608, 5.695818, 6.150524, 6.605978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.97, "volume": 58593806, "typical_volume": 32281513.4, "trend": 7.162667, "fair_value": 5.863846, "relative_strength": -50.972565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.233195, "energy": 61.739849, "activity_lines": [ 5.719333, 5.724727, 6.08981, 6.521978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.85, "volume": 52849591, "typical_volume": 32415070.4, "trend": 7.044, "fair_value": 5.882692, "relative_strength": -51.897221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.286836, "energy": 54.775927, "activity_lines": [ 5.78, 5.735273, 6.024333, 6.43729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.76, "volume": 86112045, "typical_volume": 34407203.2, "trend": 6.930667, "fair_value": 5.900577, "relative_strength": -50.847222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.032135, "energy": 42.743405, "activity_lines": [ 5.789333, 5.737455, 5.959381, 6.354452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.77, "volume": 50868016, "typical_volume": 35840397.65, "trend": 6.826333, "fair_value": 5.91891, "relative_strength": -50.766548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.957103, "energy": 37.585883, "activity_lines": [ 5.801333, 5.747636, 5.905095, 6.27957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }