{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92e8de6e-b369-49c2-8e09-38d98282c1e6", "symbol": "UMH", "name": "UMH Properties, Inc.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.476, "architecture_energy": 63.903, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.36, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.02, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.74, "rotation_down": 50.25, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.076, 44.590727, 1199.435547, 2085.08872 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.75, "trend_reference": 3126.599241, "distance_from_trend": -0.986007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4165.717685, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.021647, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990821, "excess_performance": -1.019722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986007, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989498, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.126114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.990216, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.660684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.232461, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 789, "relative_activity": 1.913655, "balance": 0.232461, "dry_up": 0.743997, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.543448, "annualized_volatility": 6.362805, "from_high_reference": -0.99258, "from_low_reference": 0.117211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3126.599241, "fair_value_reference": 4165.717685, "structural_low": 39.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.016967, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.003792, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 99.398562, "worst_return": -0.989514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.041483, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.18087, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 104.764566, "worst_return": -0.989548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 78.241215, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 78.035785, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 99.919313, "worst_return": -0.175148, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 44.056, 804.644586, 2269.055429, 2988.252699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.99, "volume": 98, "typical_volume": 454.0, "trend": 3630.649611, "fair_value": 4165.980544, "relative_strength": -99.059412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.979902, "energy": 87.477249, "activity_lines": [ 45.075333, 493.538545, 1967.100485, 2745.944461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.99, "volume": 215, "typical_volume": 440.4, "trend": 3460.164821, "fair_value": 4165.898866, "relative_strength": -99.055923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.604202, "energy": 67.481534, "activity_lines": [ 45.731333, 266.046545, 1689.468143, 2514.676099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.37, "volume": 125, "typical_volume": 410.25, "trend": 3287.55956, "fair_value": 4165.813468, "relative_strength": -99.015082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.549332, "energy": 67.294688, "activity_lines": [ 45.769333, 117.478364, 1434.213736, 2294.366756 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.75, "volume": 789, "typical_volume": 412.3, "trend": 3126.599241, "fair_value": 4165.717685, "relative_strength": -99.021647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.47604, "energy": 63.90298, "activity_lines": [ 45.076, 44.590727, 1199.435547, 2085.08872 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }