{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92ea6628-4fab-4574-bdc6-7bd7c089a4d4", "symbol": "MB28", "name": "AMUNDI FIX 28 EU GOV BROAD UCIT", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.226, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.181, "architecture_energy": 11.449, "architecture_maturity": 18.278, "architecture_confidence": 60.105, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.99, "rotation_up": 23.3, "upward_expansion": 21.38, "deceleration": 56.33, "rotation_down": 30.96, "downward_expansion": 53.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.298667, 10.299818, 10.290014, 10.300448 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.314, "trend_reference": 10.326824, "distance_from_trend": -0.001242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.222477, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008953, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.764805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011501, "excess_performance": -0.182393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00288, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.008953, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003657, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017091, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011501, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.02645, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11560, "relative_activity": 1.006868, "balance": 1.02645, "dry_up": 1.095404, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00322, "annualized_volatility": 0.021477, "from_high_reference": -0.021442, "from_low_reference": 0.013849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.326824, "fair_value_reference": 10.222477, "structural_low": 10.173109, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001359, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019605, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001359, "worst_return": 0.001359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"energy": 14.058426, "activity_lines": [ 10.302133, 10.296893, 10.286967, 10.307222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.286, "volume": 17976, "typical_volume": 12108.85, "trend": 10.333024, "fair_value": 10.221059, "relative_strength": -12.730608, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.73146, "energy": 14.185101, "activity_lines": [ 10.296133, 10.296349, 10.286316, 10.30399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.294, "volume": 10636, "typical_volume": 11415.2, "trend": 10.329891, "fair_value": 10.221688, "relative_strength": -12.831274, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.886517, "energy": 18.726409, "activity_lines": [ 10.2932, 10.296466, 10.287027, 10.301473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.314, "volume": 11560, "typical_volume": 11481.15, "trend": 10.326824, "fair_value": 10.222477, "relative_strength": -14.764805, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.181442, "energy": 11.449464, "activity_lines": [ 10.298667, 10.299818, 10.290014, 10.300448 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }