{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92f1f222-1b39-49e5-a9a0-69c61f789a91", "symbol": "PGR", "name": "Progressive Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.414, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.555, "architecture_energy": 20.807, "architecture_maturity": 50.469, "architecture_confidence": 75.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.03, "rotation_up": 28.05, "upward_expansion": 61.44, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 28.15, "downward_expansion": 13.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 214.029333, 216.165209, 210.466168, 208.149226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 215.33, "trend_reference": 206.107973, "distance_from_trend": 0.044744, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 206.329961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04362, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.432629, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065007, "excess_performance": -0.060618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044744, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003709, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067053, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128598, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065007, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.176579, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9812146, "relative_activity": 0.671559, "balance": 1.176579, "dry_up": 1.000117, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06212, "annualized_volatility": 0.270969, "from_high_reference": -0.100468, "from_low_reference": 0.146839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 206.107973, "fair_value_reference": 206.329961, "structural_low": 189.118561, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.077529, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.052598, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.123853, "worst_return": -0.037539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.090736, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.087999, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.303891, "worst_return": -0.147194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.188904, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081221, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.299442, "worst_return": 0.040529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-10.450191, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.475381, "energy": 71.796396, "activity_lines": [ 220.837246, 214.771326, 208.12684, 206.713023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 213.83, "volume": 13671865, "typical_volume": 15213533.85, "trend": 206.118349, "fair_value": 205.084422, "relative_strength": -6.897583, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.947413, "energy": 52.779138, "activity_lines": [ 218.786229, 215.535759, 208.956188, 207.211612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 211.42, "volume": 12443317, "typical_volume": 15093395.5, "trend": 206.098635, "fair_value": 205.698467, "relative_strength": -8.463128, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.757424, "energy": 25.077604, "activity_lines": [ 215.328667, 215.604083, 209.540119, 207.553654 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 215.33, "volume": 9812146, "typical_volume": 14611002.5, "trend": 206.107973, "fair_value": 206.329961, "relative_strength": -9.432629, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.555003, "energy": 20.807487, "activity_lines": [ 214.029333, 216.165209, 210.466168, 208.149226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }