{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92fc85dd-d6ad-4a76-bbcc-3de7818db93b", "symbol": "002551", "name": "Shenzhen Glory Medical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.702, "architecture_energy": 30.776, "architecture_maturity": 96.033, "architecture_confidence": 81.441, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.45, "rotation_up": 27.08, "upward_expansion": 16.73, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 30.24, "downward_expansion": 62.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.95, 2.907636, 3.028619, 3.172968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.08, "trend_reference": 3.372, "distance_from_trend": -0.086595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.439547, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.384516, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.187335, "excess_performance": -0.194735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084608, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104533, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115306, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060431, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187335, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.780094, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67554230, "relative_activity": 1.179782, "balance": 0.780094, "dry_up": 1.24206, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075425, "annualized_volatility": 0.281123, "from_high_reference": -0.43898, "from_low_reference": 0.157895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.372, "fair_value_reference": 3.439547, "structural_low": 2.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.014299, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.003922, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.23967, "worst_return": -0.187702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.06501, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.027859, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.380342, "worst_return": -0.175325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.090999, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.104149, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.448718, "worst_return": -0.224324, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208469, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.109845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043367, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072539, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.094118, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 4.16129, "volume": 81374749, "typical_volume": 37525608.95, "trend": 4.273388, "fair_value": 5.304794, "relative_strength": -4.386189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 2.863333, 2.914909, 3.112429, 3.266237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.79, "volume": 76190045, "typical_volume": 56793113.05, "trend": 3.416333, "fair_value": 3.450469, "relative_strength": -25.553482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.245011, "energy": 52.969098, "activity_lines": [ 2.847333, 2.875818, 3.065952, 3.223763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.94, "volume": 63806801, "typical_volume": 57112929.4, "trend": 3.391, "fair_value": 3.444687, "relative_strength": -19.707641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.814928, "energy": 41.522791, "activity_lines": [ 2.883333, 2.875636, 3.038571, 3.193032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.08, "volume": 67554230, "typical_volume": 57259908.85, "trend": 3.372, "fair_value": 3.439547, "relative_strength": -19.384516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.701557, "energy": 30.776222, "activity_lines": [ 2.95, 2.907636, 3.028619, 3.172968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }