{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9300d280-3d7b-4493-8698-a0f4e1ba1c62", "symbol": "200468", "name": "Nanjing Putian Telecommunications Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.343, "architecture_energy": 57.668, "architecture_maturity": 69.223, "architecture_confidence": 94.824, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 27.55, "upward_expansion": 10.44, "deceleration": 59.83, "rotation_down": 52.8, "downward_expansion": 83.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.144667, 3.185818, 3.444762, 3.71914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.2, "trend_reference": 4.064, "distance_from_trend": -0.212598, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.324038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.378789, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.298246, "excess_performance": -0.305645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212598, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.367025, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298246, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.694492, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 409870, "relative_activity": 0.47605, "balance": 0.694492, "dry_up": 0.653877, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09375, "annualized_volatility": 0.41381, "from_high_reference": -0.448276, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.064, "fair_value_reference": 3.324038, "structural_low": 2.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.001683, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017462, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.635593, "worst_return": -0.280488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052304, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026983, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.164634, "worst_return": -0.188119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067214, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.131293, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.609756, "worst_return": -0.336032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-07-03", "close": 3.12, "volume": 245600, "typical_volume": 1129567.05, "trend": 4.259667, "fair_value": 3.320641, "relative_strength": -36.931202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.736838, "energy": 82.169882, "activity_lines": [ 3.323333, 3.482727, 3.845524, 4.061828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.16, "volume": 660300, "typical_volume": 1076741.75, "trend": 4.227333, "fair_value": 3.321282, "relative_strength": -33.146536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.838001, "energy": 73.80361, "activity_lines": [ 3.245333, 3.384364, 3.752333, 3.990882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.02, "volume": 350200, "typical_volume": 1023766.75, "trend": 4.192667, "fair_value": 3.320449, "relative_strength": -29.20142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.876923, "energy": 84.138733, "activity_lines": [ 3.146, 3.283818, 3.653667, 3.912989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.07, "volume": 543698, "typical_volume": 943671.45, "trend": 4.157333, "fair_value": 3.320962, "relative_strength": -27.771035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.558208, "energy": 79.265223, "activity_lines": [ 3.095333, 3.217273, 3.568095, 3.840559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.19, "volume": 948133, "typical_volume": 897578.0, "trend": 4.114667, "fair_value": 3.322756, "relative_strength": -23.289475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.158224, "energy": 63.717933, "activity_lines": [ 3.115333, 3.197091, 3.502048, 3.778151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.2, "volume": 409870, "typical_volume": 860981.0, "trend": 4.064, "fair_value": 3.324038, "relative_strength": -26.378789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.343487, "energy": 57.66814, "activity_lines": [ 3.144667, 3.185818, 3.444762, 3.71914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }