{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93051110-419c-428a-a14f-3f465fa2aef5", "symbol": "600169", "name": "Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.471, "architecture_energy": 53.823, "architecture_maturity": 68.912, "architecture_confidence": 93.02, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 25.55, "upward_expansion": 9.17, "deceleration": 60.7, "rotation_down": 53.46, "downward_expansion": 82.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.022667, 2.033818, 2.134952, 2.211419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.05, "trend_reference": 2.303333, "distance_from_trend": -0.109986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.328013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119421, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.385975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.159836, "excess_performance": -0.116632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046502, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119421, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129267, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015771, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159836, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.29954, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47414459, "relative_activity": 0.875428, "balance": 0.29954, "dry_up": 0.970273, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054784, "annualized_volatility": 0.23307, "from_high_reference": -0.321192, "from_low_reference": 0.090426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.303333, "fair_value_reference": 2.328013, "structural_low": 1.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.021089, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.003533, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.256983, "worst_return": -0.102804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.018537, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.015689, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.236264, "worst_return": -0.208696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021739, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.021511, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.055319, "worst_return": -0.183673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 2.039333, 2.127273, 2.234095, 2.291677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.0, "volume": 56605583, "typical_volume": 66836745.45, "trend": 2.331333, "fair_value": 2.337115, "relative_strength": -13.026245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.795572, "energy": 88.274168, "activity_lines": [ 2.015333, 2.091455, 2.204143, 2.269656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.97, "volume": 59746191, "typical_volume": 63328900.15, "trend": 2.320333, "fair_value": 2.33391, "relative_strength": -14.951533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.391219, "energy": 67.781971, "activity_lines": [ 1.997333, 2.057091, 2.173952, 2.246344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.04, "volume": 46439427, "typical_volume": 59199531.7, "trend": 2.311, "fair_value": 2.330962, "relative_strength": -11.787296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.588128, "energy": 60.27106, "activity_lines": [ 2.012667, 2.042182, 2.152857, 2.228258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.05, "volume": 47414459, "typical_volume": 54161488.85, "trend": 2.303333, "fair_value": 2.328013, "relative_strength": -13.385975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.470651, "energy": 53.822557, "activity_lines": [ 2.022667, 2.033818, 2.134952, 2.211419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }