{ "ticker": { "uuid": "930a4ca4-e444-4462-ba79-057415b22bed", "symbol": "AMOB3", "name": "Automob Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 66.772, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.561, "architecture_energy": 16.231, "architecture_maturity": 18.804, "architecture_confidence": 73.291, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.04, "rotation_up": 45.48, "upward_expansion": 33.15, "deceleration": 49.94, "rotation_down": 19.84, "downward_expansion": 16.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.313333, 13.049455, 13.30381, 13.284301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.89, "trend_reference": 13.268667, "distance_from_trend": 0.046827, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.118256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.974115, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036567, "excess_performance": 0.093616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001812, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029741, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024221, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036567, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.173547, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80800, "relative_activity": 0.600097, "balance": 1.173547, "dry_up": 0.60511, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070001, "annualized_volatility": 0.368536, "from_high_reference": -0.118655, "from_low_reference": 0.296919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.268667, "fair_value_reference": 13.118256, "structural_low": 10.71, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057377, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048302, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 21.0, "volume": 10250694, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 17.5, "volume": 2846688, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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"fair_value": 13.115432, "relative_strength": -6.182353, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.084735, "energy": 41.441493, "activity_lines": [ 12.594667, 13.127455, 13.354905, 13.312022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.01, "volume": 148500, "typical_volume": 175115.0, "trend": 13.239, "fair_value": 13.114146, "relative_strength": -7.041447, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.600921, "energy": 36.520811, "activity_lines": [ 12.691333, 13.028, 13.32881, 13.295548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.77, "volume": 44300, "typical_volume": 169795.0, "trend": 13.238, "fair_value": 13.11, "relative_strength": -6.446035, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.410492, "energy": 21.867714, "activity_lines": [ 12.727333, 12.906, 13.281238, 13.26529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.9, "volume": 78000, "typical_volume": 155450.0, "trend": 13.248333, "fair_value": 13.1075, "relative_strength": -5.492778, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.697095, "energy": 13.545512, "activity_lines": [ 12.840667, 12.846, 13.24881, 13.243484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.25, "volume": 122800, "typical_volume": 148340.0, "trend": 13.259, "fair_value": 13.109176, "relative_strength": -4.874948, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.165868, "energy": 11.362938, "activity_lines": [ 13.005333, 12.882182, 13.249429, 13.243591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.89, "volume": 80800, "typical_volume": 134645.0, "trend": 13.268667, "fair_value": 13.118256, "relative_strength": 2.974115, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.560708, "energy": 16.231373, "activity_lines": [ 13.313333, 13.049455, 13.30381, 13.284301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }