{ "ticker": { "uuid": "930d8514-f7b9-4a43-ad28-39c1f9bb7040", "symbol": "NC", "name": "Newcity (Bangkok) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.097, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.099, "architecture_energy": 10.929, "architecture_maturity": 18.078, "architecture_confidence": 69.248, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.62, "rotation_up": 28.6, "upward_expansion": 31.17, "deceleration": 42.49, "rotation_down": 28.75, "downward_expansion": 44.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.860667, 1.844364, 1.833762, 1.858159 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 1.906993, "distance_from_trend": -0.045618, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.935829, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.380073, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.61361, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.120245, "excess_performance": -0.31257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045618, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.380073, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074228, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022876, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.690814, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38500, "relative_activity": 0.062359, "balance": 4.690814, "dry_up": 0.688706, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080727, "annualized_volatility": 0.3146, "from_high_reference": -0.306859, "from_low_reference": 0.109756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.906993, "fair_value_reference": 2.935829, "structural_low": 1.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.025707, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.017474, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.245054, "worst_return": -0.126118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.123142, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 3.096047, "worst_return": -0.187195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.12, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.175512, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 4.909494, "worst_return": -0.336085, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067797, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.114035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116721, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01087, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.33054, "volume": 13555902, "typical_volume": 11936937.6, "trend": 4.022108, "fair_value": 1.533663, "relative_strength": 134.97887, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", 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"fair_value": 2.980325, "relative_strength": -24.640035, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.86064, "energy": 13.381304, "activity_lines": [ 1.870667, 1.834545, 1.833905, 1.867612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.87, "volume": 44900, "typical_volume": 620415.0, "trend": 1.913959, "fair_value": 2.955449, "relative_strength": -21.960521, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.158075, "energy": 16.057082, "activity_lines": [ 1.877333, 1.845273, 1.83619, 1.864221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 38500, "typical_volume": 617390.0, "trend": 1.906993, "fair_value": 2.935829, "relative_strength": -22.61361, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.098678, "energy": 10.929387, "activity_lines": [ 1.860667, 1.844364, 1.833762, 1.858159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }