{ "ticker": { "uuid": "930d951a-70c0-4179-8868-b0f375035e99", "symbol": "ODIN", "name": "Odinwell AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.842, "architecture_energy": 60.089, "architecture_maturity": 19.692, "architecture_confidence": 88.406, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.84, "rotation_up": 11.87, "upward_expansion": 12.16, "deceleration": 38.35, "rotation_down": 71.23, "downward_expansion": 90.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1756, 0.185227, 0.197317, 0.201647 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.167, "trend_reference": 0.20775, "distance_from_trend": -0.196149, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.771945, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.783663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.032278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074792, "excess_performance": -0.136287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.783663, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.390323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09515, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074792, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.570559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1804053, "relative_activity": 4.194141, "balance": 0.570559, "dry_up": 1.855013, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.204284, "annualized_volatility": 0.693529, "from_high_reference": -0.5825, "from_low_reference": 0.227941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.20775, "fair_value_reference": 0.771945, "structural_low": 0.136, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.028439, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035975, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.630769, "worst_return": -0.373264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.203103, "positive_rate": 0.083333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.259134, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.582609, "worst_return": -0.293286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.34833, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.428403, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 4.773913, "worst_return": -0.467456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.578059, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.78659, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.688889, "worst_return": -0.620253, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.725738, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.369231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.46, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.491304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.517098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.546414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.239316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": 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0.178, "volume": 524838, "typical_volume": 553374.3, "trend": 0.215317, "fair_value": 0.790189, "relative_strength": -35.530741, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.445886, "energy": 53.063316, "activity_lines": [ 0.186, 0.195082, 0.203988, 0.207009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.177, "volume": 309740, "typical_volume": 554973.65, "trend": 0.211783, "fair_value": 0.781195, "relative_strength": -35.348896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.781616, "energy": 50.541711, "activity_lines": [ 0.181033, 0.190764, 0.201038, 0.204537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.167, "volume": 1804053, "typical_volume": 430136.45, "trend": 0.20775, "fair_value": 0.771945, "relative_strength": -39.032278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.841566, "energy": 60.089326, "activity_lines": [ 0.1756, 0.185227, 0.197317, 0.201647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }