{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93153577-bc8d-4375-9a27-6f9bc4d7cccd", "symbol": "LQQ", "name": "Amundi Nasdaq-100 Daily (2x) Leveraged UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.727, "architecture_energy": 25.569, "architecture_maturity": 74.062, "architecture_confidence": 93.314, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.93, "rotation_up": 26.43, "upward_expansion": 57.17, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 35.89, "downward_expansion": 20.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.259667, 9.468645, 9.435569, 8.953749 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.727, "trend_reference": 8.361733, "distance_from_trend": 0.163276, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.019764, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.615844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.044889, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.384823, "excess_performance": 0.331512, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163276, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.615844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.160449, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.384823, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.133271, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2623686, "relative_activity": 0.805555, "balance": 1.133271, "dry_up": 0.801284, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082534, "annualized_volatility": 0.383063, "from_high_reference": -0.082575, "from_low_reference": 0.587822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.361733, "fair_value_reference": 6.019764, "structural_low": 6.126, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030781, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.048317, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.019315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.117103, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.114215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304448, "worst_return": -0.06518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.318227, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.321509, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.406862, "worst_return": -0.03009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.227529, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.175708, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.566191, "worst_return": -0.397356, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.039722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218043, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.38216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086721, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017631, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114306, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.259434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048933, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077665, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.279, "volume": 6383600, "typical_volume": 4906380.0, "trend": 2.980983, "fair_value": 3.096585, "relative_strength": 17.039395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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54.445197, "activity_lines": [ 9.931033, 9.895227, 9.110412, 8.586784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.956, "volume": 2706153, "typical_volume": 3454147.65, "trend": 8.130733, "fair_value": 5.877715, "relative_strength": 26.713822, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.657109, "energy": 48.130008, "activity_lines": [ 9.9354, 9.938936, 9.25905, 8.710315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.135, "volume": 2778564, "typical_volume": 3446145.85, "trend": 8.190067, "fair_value": 5.913007, "relative_strength": 15.592036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.175754, "energy": 33.675523, "activity_lines": [ 9.662367, 9.8035, 9.31566, 8.775106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.026, "volume": 1695288, "typical_volume": 3292640.25, "trend": 8.2419, "fair_value": 5.946626, "relative_strength": 13.154406, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.770578, "energy": 23.570166, "activity_lines": [ 9.400267, 9.652973, 9.351717, 8.829038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.739, "volume": 3341568, "typical_volume": 3283918.65, "trend": 8.291067, "fair_value": 5.979382, "relative_strength": 7.34911, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.230682, "energy": 22.164845, "activity_lines": [ 9.133267, 9.460791, 9.350912, 8.861109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.727, "volume": 2623686, "typical_volume": 3256992.95, "trend": 8.361733, "fair_value": 6.019764, "relative_strength": 16.044889, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.727338, "energy": 25.56862, "activity_lines": [ 9.259667, 9.468645, 9.435569, 8.953749 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }