{ "ticker": { "uuid": "931564cf-06ac-4439-bab1-ad2dc0c5ef44", "symbol": "TGHN", "name": "Logwin AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.089, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.021, "architecture_energy": 38.723, "architecture_maturity": 9.149, "architecture_confidence": 69.587, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.61, "rotation_up": 54.12, "upward_expansion": 75.06, "deceleration": 59.77, "rotation_down": 17.24, "downward_expansion": 4.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 282.666667, 281.745455, 279.069307, 277.510643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 278.0, "trend_reference": 275.009283, "distance_from_trend": 0.010875, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 237.563057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170216, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.492295, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002886, "excess_performance": -0.061754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010875, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051279, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170216, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014923, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002886, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.148039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 171, "relative_activity": 0.468365, "balance": 1.148039, "dry_up": 1.335251, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024903, "annualized_volatility": 0.159627, "from_high_reference": -0.060811, "from_low_reference": 0.275601 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 275.009283, "fair_value_reference": 237.563057, "structural_low": 258.082741, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.014589, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018387, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.072993, "worst_return": -0.108844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.030728, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.09963, "worst_return": -0.114286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.00813, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.014626, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.145038, "worst_return": -0.146667, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 288.0, "volume": 819, "typical_volume": 452.15, "trend": 271.661696, "fair_value": 236.355241, "relative_strength": 8.942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.29595, "energy": 74.004499, "activity_lines": [ 284.266667, 279.236364, 277.460636, 275.787892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 284.0, "volume": 516, "typical_volume": 390.25, "trend": 273.162846, "fair_value": 236.811021, "relative_strength": 5.899106, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.186656, "energy": 73.502299, "activity_lines": [ 285.2, 280.618182, 278.225786, 276.583912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 284.0, "volume": 444, "typical_volume": 377.85, "trend": 274.472823, "fair_value": 237.200767, "relative_strength": 3.483435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.749744, "energy": 67.523219, "activity_lines": [ 285.2, 281.818182, 278.949451, 277.283083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 278.0, "volume": 171, "typical_volume": 365.1, "trend": 275.009283, "fair_value": 237.563057, "relative_strength": -1.492295, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.021006, "energy": 38.723428, "activity_lines": [ 282.666667, 281.745455, 279.069307, 277.510643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }