{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93164ca6-0919-46df-bc51-557285ae2276", "symbol": "6568", "name": "Rafael Microelectronics, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.352, "architecture_energy": 80.526, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.4, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.03, "rotation_up": 14.19, "upward_expansion": 19.66, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 74.76, "downward_expansion": 97.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.366667, 143.390909, 167.715589, 178.188021 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 132.5, "trend_reference": 181.393911, "distance_from_trend": -0.269545, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 137.152666, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.033923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.740607, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169799, "excess_performance": -0.611171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.269545, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084086, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.033923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.553776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.357406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.384281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169799, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.987622, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 406132, "relative_activity": 0.141577, "balance": 0.987622, "dry_up": 0.219131, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168062, "annualized_volatility": 0.577274, "from_high_reference": -0.527695, "from_low_reference": 0.402542 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 181.393911, "fair_value_reference": 137.152666, "structural_low": 117.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041958, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014367, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.096257, "worst_return": -0.11859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.183, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.074901, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.643564, "worst_return": -0.206278, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104655, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.142675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.148515, "worst_return": -0.37165, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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153.563636, 178.873456, 184.125234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.5, "volume": 597041, "typical_volume": 3211833.7, "trend": 181.206809, "fair_value": 137.140509, "relative_strength": -31.456409, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.105369, "energy": 69.687332, "activity_lines": [ 138.3, 148.127273, 173.347825, 181.330395 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 132.5, "volume": 406132, "typical_volume": 2868629.85, "trend": 181.393911, "fair_value": 137.152666, "relative_strength": -35.740607, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.3521, "energy": 80.526033, "activity_lines": [ 135.366667, 143.390909, 167.715589, 178.188021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }