{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9318b164-47df-499d-8a5a-395a17220073", "symbol": "596", "name": "Pavillon Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -89.124, "architecture_energy": 95.615, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.923, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 8.57, "upward_expansion": 21.89, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 85.87, "downward_expansion": 97.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0178, 0.019618, 0.021771, 0.023665 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.027067, "distance_from_trend": -0.408867, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.023737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.325952, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.121396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.578947, "excess_performance": -0.733782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.408867, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.325952, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.607091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.531214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.448586, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.578947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.373373, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168100, "relative_activity": 0.949208, "balance": 0.373373, "dry_up": 1.155736, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110577, "annualized_volatility": 0.638801, "from_high_reference": -0.673469, "from_low_reference": 3.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.027067, "fair_value_reference": 0.023737, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006267, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.866667, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.107143, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.1127, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.588235, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115385, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.1143, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.45, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.733333, "worst_return": -0.607143, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.529412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.269231, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.36, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 84115.0, "trend": 0.021733, "fair_value": 0.029494, "relative_strength": -31.728996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.362893, 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"close": 0.022, "volume": 70000, "typical_volume": 429445.0, "trend": 0.030467, "fair_value": 0.023763, "relative_strength": -33.339684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.230043, "energy": 86.388628, "activity_lines": [ 0.0232, 0.023873, 0.025205, 0.027523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.022, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 287675.0, "trend": 0.030067, "fair_value": 0.023763, "relative_strength": -33.498376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.79629, "energy": 64.762965, "activity_lines": [ 0.0228, 0.023364, 0.024733, 0.026976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.023, "volume": 450500, "typical_volume": 288775.0, "trend": 0.0298, "fair_value": 0.023795, "relative_strength": -32.793953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.579431, "energy": 60.781543, "activity_lines": [ 0.022733, 0.023091, 0.024429, 0.02652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.019, "volume": 555600, "typical_volume": 254450.0, "trend": 0.029133, "fair_value": 0.023788, "relative_strength": -44.374257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.437198, "energy": 69.835335, "activity_lines": [ 0.0214, 0.022218, 0.023795, 0.025824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.018, "volume": 70000, "typical_volume": 204545.0, "trend": 0.028533, "fair_value": 0.023776, "relative_strength": -47.539075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.970543, "energy": 84.205342, "activity_lines": [ 0.020067, 0.021364, 0.023138, 0.025105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.018, "volume": 25000, "typical_volume": 173690.0, "trend": 0.0278, "fair_value": 0.023763, "relative_strength": -47.288737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.056992, "energy": 93.467841, "activity_lines": [ 0.019133, 0.020636, 0.022524, 0.024426 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 168100, "typical_volume": 177095.0, "trend": 0.027067, "fair_value": 0.023737, "relative_strength": -53.121396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.123846, "energy": 95.614561, "activity_lines": [ 0.0178, 0.019618, 0.021771, 0.023665 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }