{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9320201e-5099-4536-a41e-a5a6da433551", "symbol": "CQQQ", "name": "UBS Solactive China Technology UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.825, "architecture_energy": 26.148, "architecture_maturity": 93.887, "architecture_confidence": 81.48, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.58, "rotation_up": 28.57, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 43.77, "rotation_down": 32.61, "downward_expansion": 62.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.402393, 7.340604, 7.485842, 7.599671 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.651, "trend_reference": 7.81186, "distance_from_trend": -0.020592, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.688488, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.065279, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066906, "excess_performance": -0.149789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10762, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066906, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.228863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21415, "relative_activity": 3.43809, "balance": 6.228863, "dry_up": 4.998314, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039006, "annualized_volatility": 0.206649, "from_high_reference": -0.248768, "from_low_reference": 0.09854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.81186, "fair_value_reference": 6.688488, "structural_low": 6.9647, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001707, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.001081, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.26708, "worst_return": -0.19899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004969, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.016001, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.216695, "worst_return": -0.11602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067717, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012971, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.606502, "worst_return": -0.080419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-31", "close": 7.3617, "volume": 15064, "typical_volume": 5158.0, "trend": 7.84634, "fair_value": 6.678131, "relative_strength": -19.484609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.635935, "energy": 40.49274, "activity_lines": [ 7.28032, 7.286684, 7.481843, 7.612274 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.651, "volume": 21415, "typical_volume": 6228.75, "trend": 7.81186, "fair_value": 6.688488, "relative_strength": -17.065279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.824596, "energy": 26.148162, "activity_lines": [ 7.402393, 7.340604, 7.485842, 7.599671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }