{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93213538-41bf-48c3-b534-84ba249e630c", "symbol": "BIMBOA", "name": "Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 64.865, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.183, "architecture_energy": 36.316, "architecture_maturity": 18.953, "architecture_confidence": 73.735, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.05, "rotation_up": 59.41, "upward_expansion": 44.61, "deceleration": 26.1, "rotation_down": 20.71, "downward_expansion": 24.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.048666, 58.876545, 58.302927, 58.401225 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 61.209999, "trend_reference": 59.030661, "distance_from_trend": 0.036919, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.010192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02857, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.594092, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076443, "excess_performance": -0.021776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036919, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004775, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02857, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092731, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005941, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112315, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076443, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.792488, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6802931, "relative_activity": 0.852824, "balance": 2.792488, "dry_up": 1.241251, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047316, "annualized_volatility": 0.24747, "from_high_reference": -0.092178, "from_low_reference": 0.175563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.030661, "fair_value_reference": 63.010192, "structural_low": 52.068663, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.006747, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.023818, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.166588, "worst_return": -0.088803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003607, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010359, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.075369, "worst_return": -0.17749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.073323, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.14837, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136331, "worst_return": 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037617, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029624, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-06", 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58.0, "volume": 10838472, "typical_volume": 7763630.05, "trend": 58.92201, "fair_value": 63.477307, "relative_strength": -4.412752, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.440013, "energy": 28.76192, "activity_lines": [ 57.128667, 57.435454, 57.467822, 58.105614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.259998, "volume": 9501866, "typical_volume": 7790764.5, "trend": 58.893066, "fair_value": 63.308858, "relative_strength": -3.522057, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.375296, "energy": 19.175785, "activity_lines": [ 57.441999, 57.524181, 57.534526, 58.062903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.959999, "volume": 12462288, "typical_volume": 8107694.05, "trend": 59.032948, "fair_value": 63.158876, "relative_strength": 1.800434, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.021946, "energy": 13.482599, "activity_lines": [ 59.032666, 58.302545, 57.962796, 58.26077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.209999, "volume": 6802931, "typical_volume": 7976943.2, "trend": 59.030661, "fair_value": 63.010192, "relative_strength": 0.594092, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.182665, "energy": 36.315696, "activity_lines": [ 60.048666, 58.876545, 58.302927, 58.401225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }