{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "93224175-42b5-48fe-89c9-7e8873942800",
    "symbol": "HRI",
    "name": "Herc Holdings Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 71.149,
    "architecture_energy": 60.998,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.908,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.214,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.8,
        "rotation_up": 64.13,
        "upward_expansion": 85.13,
        "deceleration": 48.06,
        "rotation_down": 15.15,
        "downward_expansion": 11.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        158.378667,
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        144.775694,
        138.905612
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 167.9,
    "trend_reference": 137.190511,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.223846,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 141.055497,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190312,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 10.262944,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.059472,
    "excess_performance": -0.185097,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.223846,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013922,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.190312,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.233098,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.102629,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.199107,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.059472,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.877345,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2507823,
      "relative_activity": 0.888307,
      "balance": 1.877345,
      "dry_up": 1.003117,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.110109,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.592576,
      "from_high_reference": -0.09962,
      "from_low_reference": 0.908238
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 137.190511,
      "fair_value_reference": 141.055497,
      "structural_low": 87.986911,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.02947,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031803,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.31348,
        "worst_return": -0.050599,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.126397,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.022543,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.181486,
        "worst_return": -0.212719,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.11323,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.094514,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.004203,
        "worst_return": -0.230663,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.12965,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.361945,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.184217,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2024-06-28",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": 0.52756,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 35.162781,
        "energy": 31.599816,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 2859271.3,
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        "fair_value": 140.372147,
        "relative_strength": 2.636506,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.849672,
        "energy": 26.518107,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 2801549.4,
        "trend": 137.160978,
        "fair_value": 140.635041,
        "relative_strength": 12.435489,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 45.313803,
        "energy": 34.042247,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 150.14,
        "volume": 3740664,
        "typical_volume": 2829327.45,
        "trend": 137.137819,
        "fair_value": 140.795951,
        "relative_strength": 2.514762,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 30.008186,
        "energy": 32.405916,
        "activity_lines": [
          152.146667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 167.9,
        "volume": 2507823,
        "typical_volume": 2823150.35,
        "trend": 137.190511,
        "fair_value": 141.055497,
        "relative_strength": 10.262944,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.1494,
        "energy": 60.997673,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}