{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9325d6e7-8be2-4514-b674-611451b25328", "symbol": "SAVE", "name": "Savannah Energy PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.89, "architecture_energy": 74.384, "architecture_maturity": 36.851, "architecture_confidence": 92.902, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.2, "rotation_up": 23.63, "upward_expansion": 18.24, "deceleration": 38.82, "rotation_down": 57.66, "downward_expansion": 91.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0551, 0.056595, 0.061703, 0.066656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0551, "trend_reference": 0.072013, "distance_from_trend": -0.234864, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.170709, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.677229, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.058933, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.265333, "excess_performance": -0.316569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.234864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.677229, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050604, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184753, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10645, "annualized_volatility": 0.433342, "from_high_reference": -0.454455, "from_low_reference": 0.165891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.072013, "fair_value_reference": 0.170709, "structural_low": 0.0551, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070526, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.281385, "worst_return": -0.262136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.074557, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.159722, "worst_return": -0.393204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020031, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.129928, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013889, "worst_return": -0.300971, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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59.10578, "activity_lines": [ 0.063933, 0.066491, 0.071552, 0.074009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.0551, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5207094.0, "trend": 0.074788, "fair_value": 0.177357, "relative_strength": -29.292711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.914439, "energy": 72.635882, "activity_lines": [ 0.06058, 0.063985, 0.069484, 0.072733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0551, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4874865.85, "trend": 0.074358, "fair_value": 0.176027, "relative_strength": -27.533378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.047228, "energy": 77.732192, "activity_lines": [ 0.058087, 0.061878, 0.067537, 0.071462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0551, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4513926.85, "trend": 0.073995, "fair_value": 0.174698, "relative_strength": -27.698966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.917117, "energy": 80.041955, "activity_lines": [ 0.056453, 0.060151, 0.065799, 0.07022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0551, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4006998.2, "trend": 0.07359, "fair_value": 0.173368, "relative_strength": -28.082086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.218541, "energy": 79.670972, "activity_lines": [ 0.05548, 0.058695, 0.064272, 0.069001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0551, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3685440.7, "trend": 0.07296, "fair_value": 0.172039, "relative_strength": -28.401228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.373138, "energy": 77.09207, "activity_lines": [ 0.0551, 0.057509, 0.062912, 0.067808 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0551, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3536177.0, "trend": 0.072013, "fair_value": 0.170709, "relative_strength": -28.058933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.890487, "energy": 74.383781, "activity_lines": [ 0.0551, 0.056595, 0.061703, 0.066656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }