{ "ticker": { "uuid": "932ab29a-52a2-4d95-bd68-5b24abadaad8", "symbol": "360200", "name": "Kim Kindex S&P 500 Etf", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.43, "architecture_energy": 22.597, "architecture_maturity": 63.44, "architecture_confidence": 78.566, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.72, "rotation_up": 19.71, "upward_expansion": 48.8, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 38.58, "downward_expansion": 26.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 27312.872136, 27734.024539, 27768.468583, 27241.366024 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 27365.0, "trend_reference": 26554.933529, "distance_from_trend": 0.030505, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20695.443635, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.976359, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.097165, "excess_performance": -0.132664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041323, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249473, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.990884, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3728448, "relative_activity": 1.343336, "balance": 0.990884, "dry_up": 1.373616, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030325, "annualized_volatility": 0.133981, "from_high_reference": -0.066041, "from_low_reference": 0.242318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26554.933529, "fair_value_reference": 20695.443635, "structural_low": 23908.984358, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.004413, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.003882, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.071918, "worst_return": -0.081271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041693, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055773, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140203, "worst_return": -0.07934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.137803, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.107878, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224783, "worst_return": 0.015505, 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"trend": 26419.842123, "fair_value": 20534.428517, "relative_strength": -21.661068, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.415542, "energy": 31.316887, "activity_lines": [ 27915.914193, 28176.056499, 27789.708101, 27165.771107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26710.0, "volume": 3324329, "typical_volume": 2805820.7, "trend": 26483.436654, "fair_value": 20612.805714, "relative_strength": -21.06014, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.386432, "energy": 21.782577, "activity_lines": [ 27458.855599, 27880.040519, 27752.037165, 27184.49097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27365.0, "volume": 3728448, "typical_volume": 2775514.95, "trend": 26554.933529, "fair_value": 20695.443635, "relative_strength": -13.976359, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.430094, "energy": 22.59704, "activity_lines": [ 27312.872136, 27734.024539, 27768.468583, 27241.366024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }