{ "ticker": { "uuid": "932e5780-ed86-40f5-a626-54acc3e6f8b0", "symbol": "2008", "name": "Kao Hsing Chang Iron & Steel Corp.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.033, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.978, "architecture_energy": 59.248, "architecture_maturity": 16.549, "architecture_confidence": 71.103, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.7, "rotation_up": 60.62, "upward_expansion": 82.46, "deceleration": 54.13, "rotation_down": 16.1, "downward_expansion": 11.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.83, 30.430617, 29.470781, 28.906469 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.75, "trend_reference": 28.423244, "distance_from_trend": 0.081861, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.130048, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223635, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.548943, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09521, "excess_performance": -0.346162, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081861, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223635, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109268, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09521, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.141545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94367, "relative_activity": 0.663376, "balance": 1.141545, "dry_up": 1.047195, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043294, "annualized_volatility": 0.222748, "from_high_reference": -0.03605, "from_low_reference": 0.303929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.423244, "fair_value_reference": 25.130048, "structural_low": 26.095476, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.014545, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": 0.001745, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.434545, "worst_return": -0.159927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.066485, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.03668, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.259787, "worst_return": -0.2423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.11761, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.144054, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.205364, "worst_return": -0.219712, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.769134, "energy": 67.903686, "activity_lines": [ 30.288643, 29.781029, 28.742025, 28.413822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.950001, "volume": 134572, "typical_volume": 150004.45, "trend": 28.261194, "fair_value": 24.968057, "relative_strength": -16.201279, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.764749, "energy": 66.748607, "activity_lines": [ 30.624545, 30.0943, 29.01727, 28.5942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.700001, "volume": 162916, "typical_volume": 141372.65, "trend": 28.348634, "fair_value": 25.049913, "relative_strength": -18.411803, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.787216, "energy": 71.955984, "activity_lines": [ 30.75, 30.283518, 29.250652, 28.751542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 30.75, "volume": 94367, "typical_volume": 142252.65, "trend": 28.423244, "fair_value": 25.130048, "relative_strength": -20.548943, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.978496, "energy": 59.248139, "activity_lines": [ 30.83, 30.430617, 29.470781, 28.906469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }