{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93307375-5c38-49c7-9df6-f02df6cf8ee6", "symbol": "MSMR", "name": "MCELHENNY SHEFFIELD MANAGED RISK ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 81.076, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.644, "architecture_energy": 49.368, "architecture_maturity": 6.776, "architecture_confidence": 80.196, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.83, "rotation_up": 14.93, "upward_expansion": 24.5, "deceleration": 51.09, "rotation_down": 65.64, "downward_expansion": 51.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.690247, 34.911842, 35.355331, 35.324922 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.9605, "trend_reference": 35.302798, "distance_from_trend": -0.009696, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.651814, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.87462, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01368, "excess_performance": -0.139305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009696, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179034, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091486, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01368, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43514, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23343, "relative_activity": 0.305328, "balance": 0.43514, "dry_up": 0.616758, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019687, "annualized_volatility": 0.102859, "from_high_reference": -0.066827, "from_low_reference": 0.116768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.302798, "fair_value_reference": 29.651814, "structural_low": 33.411163, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.013403, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.013403, "worst_return": -0.013403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.049476, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049476, "worst_return": 0.049476, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.145408, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.052469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145408, "worst_return": 0.145408, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012891, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.070857, "active": false }, { 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"close": 34.5, "volume": 98182, "typical_volume": 76635.15, "trend": 35.292657, "fair_value": 29.508588, "relative_strength": -7.284308, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.995818, "energy": 50.148849, "activity_lines": [ 34.808762, 35.20327, 35.476082, 35.403343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.4203, "volume": 26756, "typical_volume": 76329.9, "trend": 35.30367, "fair_value": 29.577522, "relative_strength": -8.342351, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.66791, "energy": 54.848249, "activity_lines": [ 34.632767, 34.985682, 35.389074, 35.347062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.9605, "volume": 23343, "typical_volume": 76452.15, "trend": 35.302798, "fair_value": 29.651814, "relative_strength": -9.87462, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.644406, "energy": 49.368202, "activity_lines": [ 34.690247, 34.911842, 35.355331, 35.324922 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }