{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9333845b-2f55-48b4-8bbb-871d5a4a54c7", "symbol": "FTLF", "name": "FitLife Brands, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.233, "architecture_energy": 31.108, "architecture_maturity": 23.873, "architecture_confidence": 77.237, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.07, "rotation_up": 12.68, "upward_expansion": 8.78, "deceleration": 55.97, "rotation_down": 54.72, "downward_expansion": 67.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.258, 10.612545, 10.49281, 10.961828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.03, "trend_reference": 11.955333, "distance_from_trend": -0.161044, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.831193, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.274828, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.544954, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.347005, "excess_performance": -0.534459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161044, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153745, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.274828, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026297, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.40545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076165, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.347005, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.716536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37265, "relative_activity": 0.248314, "balance": 0.716536, "dry_up": 0.413743, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13749, "annualized_volatility": 0.57307, "from_high_reference": -0.521926, "from_low_reference": 0.156863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.955333, "fair_value_reference": 13.831193, "structural_low": 8.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.018606, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.019423, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.26, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.125, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.058854, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.348144, "worst_return": -0.096937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.255704, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.10659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.352, "worst_return": -0.098076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.4, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.147261, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.845714, "worst_return": 0.217282, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084325, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.372889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026175, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028648, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110656, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121011, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019754, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075974, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.250326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105263, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.125, "volume": 22097, "typical_volume": 8226.95, "trend": 8.6605, "fair_value": 6.04899, "relative_strength": -6.681603, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"2026-06-12", "close": 11.01, "volume": 163848, "typical_volume": 126524.6, "trend": 13.608667, "fair_value": 13.732411, "relative_strength": -38.080617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.490372, "energy": 30.618757, "activity_lines": [ 10.388667, 10.099091, 10.906571, 12.021333 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.27, "volume": 84312, "typical_volume": 128460.75, "trend": 13.378, "fair_value": 13.749654, "relative_strength": -37.775163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.271826, "energy": 23.218702, "activity_lines": [ 10.700667, 10.351455, 10.833381, 11.870452 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.08, "volume": 489588, "typical_volume": 150583.4, "trend": 13.125667, "fair_value": 13.766193, "relative_strength": -35.548524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.410944, "energy": 18.3605, "activity_lines": [ 10.898, 10.539273, 10.764143, 11.722194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.5, "volume": 199117, "typical_volume": 154527.95, "trend": 12.933667, "fair_value": 13.785423, "relative_strength": -33.180963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.228227, "energy": 17.447003, "activity_lines": [ 11.168, 10.771455, 10.755286, 11.617312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.21, "volume": 64002, "typical_volume": 154309.0, "trend": 12.708333, "fair_value": 13.80209, "relative_strength": -35.608214, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.239737, "energy": 16.232899, "activity_lines": [ 11.256, 10.912364, 10.73181, 11.506108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.06, "volume": 44409, "typical_volume": 153288.3, "trend": 12.514333, "fair_value": 13.816898, "relative_strength": -33.345045, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.923704, "energy": 13.305442, "activity_lines": [ 11.204667, 10.990909, 10.713714, 11.399763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.25, "volume": 79996, "typical_volume": 154859.1, "trend": 12.329333, "fair_value": 13.822507, "relative_strength": -36.823321, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.745717, "energy": 18.389305, "activity_lines": [ 10.88, 10.894727, 10.637857, 11.253677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.91, "volume": 86695, "typical_volume": 153973.3, "trend": 12.134333, "fair_value": 13.824494, "relative_strength": -38.843717, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.058858, "energy": 27.451306, "activity_lines": [ 10.51, 10.741273, 10.550333, 11.097591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.03, "volume": 37265, "typical_volume": 150072.1, "trend": 11.955333, "fair_value": 13.831193, "relative_strength": -40.544954, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.232627, "energy": 31.108469, "activity_lines": [ 10.258, 10.612545, 10.49281, 10.961828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }