{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93342f83-fc9d-4098-bc4a-a628853dae73", "symbol": "ACIU", "name": "AC Immune Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.182, "architecture_energy": 54.058, "architecture_maturity": 29.549, "architecture_confidence": 94.731, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.37, "rotation_up": 18.24, "upward_expansion": 10.19, "deceleration": 42.3, "rotation_down": 58.51, "downward_expansion": 83.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.269333, 2.322727, 2.468286, 2.582828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.36, "trend_reference": 2.758167, "distance_from_trend": -0.144359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.918558, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191381, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.688666, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.248408, "excess_performance": -0.435861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191381, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167469, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156137, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.248408, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.721121, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 516856, "relative_activity": 0.423528, "balance": 0.721121, "dry_up": 0.691036, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128364, "annualized_volatility": 0.575361, "from_high_reference": -0.41, "from_low_reference": 0.162562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.758167, "fair_value_reference": 2.918558, "structural_low": 2.095, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.015015, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.01353, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.945607, "worst_return": -0.295238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.095398, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.063132, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.514644, "worst_return": -0.280265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.216, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.065503, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.557214, "worst_return": -0.378109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.2218, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.331444, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.732558, "worst_return": -0.512438, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.211765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.380952, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.192982, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014151, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.191176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.220408, "active": false }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.553447, "energy": 37.107017, "activity_lines": [ 2.452, 2.480909, 2.635548, 2.737495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.2, "volume": 1074350, "typical_volume": 1337022.3, "trend": 2.862167, "fair_value": 2.93234, "relative_strength": -30.550754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.326314, "energy": 42.107224, "activity_lines": [ 2.374, 2.416182, 2.584524, 2.692989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.23, "volume": 1011009, "typical_volume": 1292133.4, "trend": 2.832167, "fair_value": 2.928045, "relative_strength": -28.144088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.756306, "energy": 49.132723, "activity_lines": [ 2.313333, 2.368909, 2.539833, 2.652204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.19, "volume": 771034, "typical_volume": 1258219.75, "trend": 2.793167, "fair_value": 2.922981, "relative_strength": -29.622163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.871397, "energy": 61.640781, "activity_lines": [ 2.250667, 2.324545, 2.494, 2.610774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.36, "volume": 516856, "typical_volume": 1220359.4, "trend": 2.758167, "fair_value": 2.918558, "relative_strength": -27.688666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.182296, "energy": 54.05778, "activity_lines": [ 2.269333, 2.322727, 2.468286, 2.582828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }