{ "ticker": { "uuid": "933693c3-f018-4650-8010-f9435533ec36", "symbol": "AAXJ", "name": "ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRY ASIA EX JAPAN ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.063, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.708, "architecture_energy": 15.578, "architecture_maturity": 55.39, "architecture_confidence": 91.447, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.41, "rotation_up": 21.02, "upward_expansion": 47.35, "deceleration": 84.62, "rotation_down": 36.16, "downward_expansion": 27.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 111.73, 113.273613, 113.408685, 110.864459 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 113.53, "trend_reference": 107.593522, "distance_from_trend": 0.055175, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.539911, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.427334, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.509284, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120084, "excess_performance": -0.067369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055175, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07295, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.427334, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120084, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.507094, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1494999, "relative_activity": 0.406221, "balance": 1.507094, "dry_up": 0.624259, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060529, "annualized_volatility": 0.283224, "from_high_reference": -0.09096, "from_low_reference": 0.363126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.593522, "fair_value_reference": 79.539911, "structural_low": 92.210179, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.034314, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015369, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.160319, "worst_return": -0.054761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054754, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.037611, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247503, "worst_return": -0.011792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109972, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.216128, "worst_return": -0.018013, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.353011, "energy": 40.814602, "activity_lines": [ 116.759532, 116.464488, 112.799701, 109.640581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 109.81, "volume": 3373446, "typical_volume": 4455472.95, "trend": 105.9868, "fair_value": 78.638125, "relative_strength": 0.49924, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.966323, "energy": 19.98827, "activity_lines": [ 114.184667, 115.318234, 112.898483, 109.927639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.86, "volume": 1829058, "typical_volume": 4045150.0, "trend": 106.550879, "fair_value": 78.916078, "relative_strength": 2.032944, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.294484, "energy": 19.632054, "activity_lines": [ 112.129333, 114.313505, 112.984986, 110.177523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.72, "volume": 2492230, "typical_volume": 3855680.45, "trend": 107.051609, "fair_value": 79.213514, "relative_strength": 2.106502, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.965947, "energy": 17.907207, "activity_lines": [ 111.256667, 113.511144, 113.095257, 110.446498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 113.53, "volume": 1494999, "typical_volume": 3680258.95, "trend": 107.593522, "fair_value": 79.539911, "relative_strength": -0.509284, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.707574, "energy": 15.577771, "activity_lines": [ 111.73, 113.273613, 113.408685, 110.864459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }