{ "ticker": { "uuid": "933f2d56-f165-4096-a257-193e364fa93b", "symbol": "HOU", "name": "BetaPro Crude Oil Daily Bull ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.396, "architecture_energy": 15.656, "architecture_maturity": 33.958, "architecture_confidence": 61.901, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.14, "rotation_up": 47.48, "upward_expansion": 32.63, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 24.83, "downward_expansion": 25.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.778667, 17.661454, 19.125905, 19.328796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.969999, "trend_reference": 18.246667, "distance_from_trend": -0.069967, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.494295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.92672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.602455, "excess_performance": 0.482034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069967, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185695, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.484726, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049267, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.56812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.602455, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924664, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5392400, "relative_activity": 0.488316, "balance": 0.924664, "dry_up": 0.71037, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217397, "annualized_volatility": 1.230705, "from_high_reference": -0.424551, "from_low_reference": 1.110696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.246667, "fair_value_reference": 13.494295, "structural_low": 10.07, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.015161, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.046289, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.343593, "worst_return": -0.153922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.087255, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.184852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.559771, "worst_return": -0.269493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086796, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.249947, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.787402, "worst_return": -0.286908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.062992, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.311459, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.018182, "worst_return": -0.133238, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.085068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066616, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164502, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.492896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.203139, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04326, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", 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18.019457, "activity_lines": [ 21.716667, 22.488727, 21.71381, 19.344796 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 16.559999, "volume": 1045500, "typical_volume": 11917525.0, "trend": 16.389667, "fair_value": 13.325449, "relative_strength": 9.01137, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.784668, "energy": 16.033559, "activity_lines": [ 19.575333, 21.448364, 21.419286, 19.372215 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 13.55, "volume": 2962100, "typical_volume": 11869945.0, "trend": 16.537667, "fair_value": 13.341859, "relative_strength": -10.814874, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.201852, "energy": 24.520545, "activity_lines": [ 17.16, 19.929091, 20.81319, 19.189011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.3, "volume": 597700, "typical_volume": 11792075.0, "trend": 16.662667, "fair_value": 13.350962, "relative_strength": -13.018472, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.820825, "energy": 50.208934, "activity_lines": [ 15.413333, 18.430909, 20.16919, 18.980129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.36, "volume": 8844900, "typical_volume": 12112785.0, "trend": 16.849667, "fair_value": 13.363526, "relative_strength": -6.146692, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.474462, "energy": 56.303658, "activity_lines": [ 14.546, 17.287273, 19.612048, 18.83157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.43, "volume": 8965500, "typical_volume": 12459325.0, "trend": 17.18, "fair_value": 13.398654, "relative_strength": 19.991852, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.565996, "energy": 50.309812, "activity_lines": [ 15.543333, 17.089091, 19.429333, 18.933527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.15, "volume": 8894300, "typical_volume": 12392975.0, "trend": 17.617, "fair_value": 13.449872, "relative_strength": 42.322553, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.035183, "energy": 19.385425, "activity_lines": [ 17.846667, 17.641454, 19.569714, 19.254172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.790001, "volume": 8125800, "typical_volume": 11523630.0, "trend": 17.986333, "fair_value": 13.481538, "relative_strength": 26.90304, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.627527, "energy": 11.632292, "activity_lines": [ 18.990667, 17.862, 19.473667, 19.394366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.969999, "volume": 5392400, "typical_volume": 11042840.0, "trend": 18.246667, "fair_value": 13.494295, "relative_strength": 4.92672, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.39568, "energy": 15.656244, "activity_lines": [ 18.778667, 17.661454, 19.125905, 19.328796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }