{ "ticker": { "uuid": "933f785d-15dc-452d-b10d-975525b0129b", "symbol": "603858", "name": "Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.615, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.892, "architecture_energy": 15.282, "architecture_maturity": 65.066, "architecture_confidence": 62.191, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.81, "rotation_up": 33.73, "upward_expansion": 19.58, "deceleration": 43.4, "rotation_down": 17.45, "downward_expansion": 51.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.595149, 15.377824, 15.440555, 15.710135 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.95, "trend_reference": 16.077954, "distance_from_trend": -0.007958, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.252984, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018642, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.246481, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.062316, "excess_performance": -0.019112, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007958, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032129, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018642, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012704, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.443377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32774620, "relative_activity": 1.312372, "balance": 1.443377, "dry_up": 1.528653, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05059, "annualized_volatility": 0.163668, "from_high_reference": -0.208395, "from_low_reference": 0.109951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.077954, "fair_value_reference": 16.252984, "structural_low": 14.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.002326, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 0.008191, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.279675, "worst_return": -0.131128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003474, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.023381, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.132647, "worst_return": -0.108744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003955, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.014157, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.22587, "worst_return": -0.105576, 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"volume": 48457984, "typical_volume": 23572888.15, "trend": 16.133241, "fair_value": 16.310713, "relative_strength": -4.570442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.558607, "energy": 32.225803, "activity_lines": [ 15.169732, 15.133131, 15.489308, 15.807305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.262527, "volume": 37465846, "typical_volume": 23967258.6, "trend": 16.096659, "fair_value": 16.289325, "relative_strength": -6.144324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.722168, "energy": 22.334647, "activity_lines": [ 15.226091, 15.149095, 15.434419, 15.75113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.578851, "volume": 34005344, "typical_volume": 24588918.2, "trend": 16.067621, "fair_value": 16.269847, "relative_strength": -4.282691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.275183, "energy": 18.74361, "activity_lines": [ 15.389057, 15.232526, 15.416596, 15.717723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.95, "volume": 32774620, "typical_volume": 24973580.35, "trend": 16.077954, "fair_value": 16.252984, "relative_strength": -4.246481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.891775, "energy": 15.282375, "activity_lines": [ 15.595149, 15.377824, 15.440555, 15.710135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }