{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9346427d-305d-4ac5-bb65-c1662cd4622e",
    "symbol": "G1FI34",
    "name": "Gold Fields Limited",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -42.141,
    "architecture_energy": 43.116,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.596,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.449,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.16,
        "rotation_up": 29.69,
        "upward_expansion": 21.49,
        "deceleration": 63.27,
        "rotation_down": 47.57,
        "downward_expansion": 73.82
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        89.954668,
        88.976001,
        94.187953,
        100.969979
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 103.900002,
    "trend_reference": 110.766406,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.06199,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 65.308278,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.590916,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -7.783407,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.235253,
    "excess_performance": -0.178205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06199,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067639,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.590916,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.22943,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.077834,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008014,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.235253,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.643677,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1761,
      "relative_activity": 0.782841,
      "balance": 0.643677,
      "dry_up": 0.960213,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.072725,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.581665,
      "from_high_reference": -0.337219,
      "from_low_reference": 0.349458
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 110.766406,
      "fair_value_reference": 65.308278,
      "structural_low": 79.889999,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.060114,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.081535,
        "regime_survival": 0.777778,
        "best_return": 0.347826,
        "worst_return": -0.115796,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.258958,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.114624,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.265306,
        "worst_return": -0.097762,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.195981,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.092523,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.250355,
        "worst_return": 0.141607,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.390451,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.228884,
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        "worst_return": 0.389341,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "end": "2024-09-20",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.152715,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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      },
      {
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.902981,
        "energy": 3.584587,
        "activity_lines": [
          120.114,
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          124.65738,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 104.900002,
        "volume": 2963,
        "typical_volume": 7560.0,
        "trend": 119.545316,
        "fair_value": 59.886313,
        "relative_strength": -12.316596,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.916073,
        "energy": 19.900489,
        "activity_lines": [
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          122.08188
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 109.879997,
        "volume": 3404,
        "typical_volume": 7386.7,
        "trend": 119.544775,
        "fair_value": 60.362131,
        "relative_strength": -6.981966,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -29.997193,
        "energy": 31.937457,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 102.75,
        "volume": 1140,
        "typical_volume": 6525.1,
        "trend": 119.104471,
        "fair_value": 60.794914,
        "relative_strength": -10.136372,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -39.436914,
        "energy": 51.608627,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 100.580002,
        "volume": 3924,
        "typical_volume": 6457.55,
        "trend": 118.905263,
        "fair_value": 61.222336,
        "relative_strength": -11.79502,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -40.40531,
        "energy": 57.457116,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 100.690002,
        "volume": 202,
        "typical_volume": 6266.95,
        "trend": 118.802118,
        "fair_value": 61.638056,
        "relative_strength": -10.794604,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 65.243212,
        "activity_lines": [
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          118.004472
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 94.190002,
        "volume": 234,
        "typical_volume": 5596.5,
        "trend": 118.552828,
        "fair_value": 62.018046,
        "relative_strength": -14.370698,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.16592,
        "energy": 74.167806,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 92.059998,
        "volume": 26,
        "typical_volume": 5247.25,
        "trend": 118.080068,
        "fair_value": 62.393226,
        "relative_strength": -17.425823,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.198543,
        "energy": 77.641796,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 3899.15,
        "trend": 117.871848,
        "fair_value": 62.806544,
        "relative_strength": -12.830293,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "energy": 75.459198,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 1888,
        "typical_volume": 3696.2,
        "trend": 117.049462,
        "fair_value": 63.163073,
        "relative_strength": -23.725704,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.202149,
        "energy": 82.771494,
        "activity_lines": [
          92.083334,
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          111.252417
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 88.0,
        "volume": 6,
        "typical_volume": 3410.5,
        "trend": 116.122715,
        "fair_value": 63.536151,
        "relative_strength": -22.874933,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.795492,
        "energy": 83.245265,
        "activity_lines": [
          90.127334,
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          109.378258
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 87.93,
        "volume": 260,
        "typical_volume": 3185.2,
        "trend": 115.218121,
        "fair_value": 63.87993,
        "relative_strength": -24.53719,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -69.284402,
        "energy": 82.130224,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.994,
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          100.426299,
          107.559373
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 80.800003,
        "volume": 2012,
        "typical_volume": 3016.8,
        "trend": 113.797366,
        "fair_value": 64.175867,
        "relative_strength": -28.936436,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -81.072752,
        "energy": 88.517649,
        "activity_lines": [
          85.901335,
          89.585637,
          97.815518,
          105.338849
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 83.150002,
        "volume": 4419,
        "typical_volume": 2655.8,
        "trend": 112.375607,
        "fair_value": 64.49417,
        "relative_strength": -26.965372,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.990602,
        "energy": 85.431981,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.342668,
          87.805638,
          95.749048,
          103.3616
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 82.709999,
        "volume": 448,
        "typical_volume": 2461.5,
        "trend": 111.304523,
        "fair_value": 64.832031,
        "relative_strength": -28.854658,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.385671,
        "energy": 84.642825,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.494001,
          86.302001,
          93.865143,
          101.44769
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 103.900002,
        "volume": 1761,
        "typical_volume": 2249.5,
        "trend": 110.766406,
        "fair_value": 65.308278,
        "relative_strength": -7.783407,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.140899,
        "energy": 43.116131,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.954668,
          88.976001,
          94.187953,
          100.969979
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}