{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9349041b-fb9b-4c17-b686-80eb6ab70c61", "symbol": "002438", "name": "Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.579, "architecture_energy": 61.818, "architecture_maturity": 19.91, "architecture_confidence": 78.405, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.87, "rotation_up": 13.46, "upward_expansion": 11.33, "deceleration": 44.73, "rotation_down": 68.26, "downward_expansion": 84.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.97, 13.420969, 14.495386, 15.210985 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.99, "trend_reference": 15.968124, "distance_from_trend": -0.12388, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.580049, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112078, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.818593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.188044, "excess_performance": -0.195444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12388, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015911, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112078, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188044, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.554986, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135852307, "relative_activity": 3.282007, "balance": 1.554986, "dry_up": 1.373557, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10266, "annualized_volatility": 0.455721, "from_high_reference": -0.309817, "from_low_reference": 0.216522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.968124, "fair_value_reference": 12.580049, "structural_low": 11.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.059929, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.023506, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.312268, "worst_return": -0.084173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.101196, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.114286, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.30608, "worst_return": -0.13201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067689, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.034627, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.761079, "worst_return": -0.20558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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16.378457, "fair_value": 12.537077, "relative_strength": -20.176627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.189443, "energy": 79.56299, "activity_lines": [ 14.227237, 14.982777, 15.699933, 16.10977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.14, "volume": 28708383, "typical_volume": 44101758.85, "trend": 16.24579, "fair_value": 12.543308, "relative_strength": -20.348298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.835367, "energy": 89.118732, "activity_lines": [ 13.438, 14.36508, 15.29782, 15.836321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.03, "volume": 34055863, "typical_volume": 41961935.5, "trend": 16.135124, "fair_value": 12.550704, "relative_strength": -21.050857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.920474, "energy": 90.10905, "activity_lines": [ 12.804667, 13.815628, 14.91704, 15.564334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.7, "volume": 28806331, "typical_volume": 39453430.85, "trend": 16.03179, "fair_value": 12.559839, "relative_strength": -15.068338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.965546, "energy": 83.666978, "activity_lines": [ 12.623333, 13.471599, 14.629165, 15.342714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.99, "volume": 135852307, "typical_volume": 41393056.45, "trend": 15.968124, "fair_value": 12.580049, "relative_strength": -10.818593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.578829, "energy": 61.817564, "activity_lines": [ 12.97, 13.420969, 14.495386, 15.210985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }