{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93515da8-c3b9-4747-81af-50bf8eeec7e0", "symbol": "IFRF", "name": "IA Clarington Loomis Floating Rate Income Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.159, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.989, "architecture_energy": 46.259, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.524, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.36, "rotation_up": 28.49, "upward_expansion": 11.14, "deceleration": 60.89, "rotation_down": 44.9, "downward_expansion": 73.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.562667, 7.562909, 7.576286, 7.592624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.55, "trend_reference": 7.625, "distance_from_trend": -0.009836, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.093285, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.366839, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.020752, "excess_performance": -0.141174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009836, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009997, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067128, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006149, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.058085, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1800, "relative_activity": 0.423529, "balance": 0.058085, "dry_up": 0.111765, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00326, "annualized_volatility": 0.029975, "from_high_reference": -0.053885, "from_low_reference": 0.002656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.625, "fair_value_reference": 8.093285, "structural_low": 7.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.002544, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.022585, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003979, "worst_return": -0.016688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012022, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065722, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.002646, "worst_return": -0.025773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.026125, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1682, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.023899, "worst_return": -0.028351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.58, 7.589455, 7.602381, 7.628559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.54, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5360.0, "trend": 7.663, "fair_value": 8.113409, "relative_strength": -13.42701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.388302, "energy": 87.554624, "activity_lines": [ 7.564667, 7.578909, 7.595048, 7.620108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.55, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 5325.0, "trend": 7.654667, "fair_value": 8.109173, "relative_strength": -12.907523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.081659, "energy": 83.608777, "activity_lines": [ 7.558, 7.571818, 7.589238, 7.612817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.56, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 4205.0, "trend": 7.646667, "fair_value": 8.105075, "relative_strength": -12.152159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.426952, "energy": 73.768752, "activity_lines": [ 7.557333, 7.567455, 7.584905, 7.60671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.58, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4165.0, "trend": 7.639, "fair_value": 8.101185, "relative_strength": -11.650585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.764686, "energy": 56.595849, "activity_lines": [ 7.563333, 7.567818, 7.582952, 7.602409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.57, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4160.0, "trend": 7.632667, "fair_value": 8.097279, "relative_strength": -10.850941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.53963, "energy": 46.859812, "activity_lines": [ 7.566, 7.567091, 7.580381, 7.597957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.55, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 4250.0, "trend": 7.625, "fair_value": 8.093285, "relative_strength": -13.366839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.989481, "energy": 46.258836, "activity_lines": [ 7.562667, 7.562909, 7.576286, 7.592624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }