{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9356a688-2e52-4bc6-b788-7f30e7f44e76", "symbol": "4280", "name": "Kingdom Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.864, "architecture_energy": 31.972, "architecture_maturity": 49.703, "architecture_confidence": 76.344, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.41, "rotation_up": 36.63, "upward_expansion": 65.2, "deceleration": 75.57, "rotation_down": 24.85, "downward_expansion": 7.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.258396, 12.214789, 12.016947, 11.413243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.82, "trend_reference": 10.516787, "distance_from_trend": 0.219004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.215783, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.560411, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 39.393203, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.565975, "excess_performance": 0.597805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.219004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170887, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.560411, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215655, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.393932, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130353, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.565975, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.905245, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6312824, "relative_activity": 0.804973, "balance": 1.905245, "dry_up": 0.675486, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106783, "annualized_volatility": 0.461615, "from_high_reference": -0.177253, "from_low_reference": 0.868701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.516787, "fair_value_reference": 8.215783, "structural_low": 7.848796, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.021645, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.006008, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.081897, "worst_return": -0.249004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021154, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.044734, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.186758, "worst_return": -0.094279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072711, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.07145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.372989, "worst_return": -0.102266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169603, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094751, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077799, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083117, "active": false }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 11.642535, "volume": 3685394, "typical_volume": 7240973.95, "trend": 9.95994, "fair_value": 8.084802, "relative_strength": 31.844442, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.3442, "energy": 24.397139, "activity_lines": [ 11.963598, 12.295698, 11.59997, 10.886467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.771786, "volume": 2394622, "typical_volume": 7248600.55, "trend": 10.071658, "fair_value": 8.11482, "relative_strength": 33.25089, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.865698, "energy": 26.022031, "activity_lines": [ 11.751169, 12.234944, 11.687445, 11.00336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.089942, "volume": 4978637, "typical_volume": 7338445.3, "trend": 10.21302, "fair_value": 8.146761, "relative_strength": 34.685794, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.897785, "energy": 21.182777, "activity_lines": [ 11.82134, 12.208535, 11.790561, 11.133572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.08, "volume": 7503339, "typical_volume": 7556402.7, "trend": 10.352073, "fair_value": 8.178813, "relative_strength": 35.926471, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.607051, "energy": 18.777394, "activity_lines": [ 11.930201, 12.144457, 11.875846, 11.254022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.82, "volume": 6312824, "typical_volume": 7842283.25, "trend": 10.516787, "fair_value": 8.215783, "relative_strength": 39.393203, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.863522, "energy": 31.971569, "activity_lines": [ 12.258396, 12.214789, 12.016947, 11.413243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }