{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9357b107-4514-485e-a6c2-671fd2db5265", "symbol": "002953", "name": "Guangdong Rifeng Electric Cable Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.18, "architecture_energy": 35.55, "architecture_maturity": 97.153, "architecture_confidence": 90.276, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.12, "rotation_up": 27.26, "upward_expansion": 17.79, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 37.62, "downward_expansion": 67.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.513333, 9.361273, 9.900567, 10.448562 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.98, "trend_reference": 11.165625, "distance_from_trend": -0.106185, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.993236, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.161628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.194047, "excess_performance": -0.201446, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106185, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001324, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205494, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00278, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194047, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.668536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50625843, "relative_activity": 1.723275, "balance": 0.668536, "dry_up": 1.977201, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081541, "annualized_volatility": 0.316767, "from_high_reference": -0.378122, "from_low_reference": 0.192354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.165625, "fair_value_reference": 9.993236, "structural_low": 8.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.042151, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001301, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.674966, "worst_return": -0.177467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.248835, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.072824, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.461392, "worst_return": -0.239447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096044, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.062114, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.568493, "worst_return": -0.092104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 21743936, "typical_volume": 28290487.35, "trend": 11.343797, "fair_value": 9.983972, "relative_strength": -26.475992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.971719, "energy": 88.959224, "activity_lines": [ 8.912667, 9.328993, 10.193911, 10.761094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.52, "volume": 97702580, "typical_volume": 30080706.25, "trend": 11.278418, "fair_value": 9.985154, "relative_strength": -19.826724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.888661, "energy": 61.95296, "activity_lines": [ 9.075333, 9.282292, 10.066251, 10.64343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.49, "volume": 62270016, "typical_volume": 30127700.55, "trend": 11.212039, "fair_value": 9.985618, "relative_strength": -18.470532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.303672, "energy": 53.35686, "activity_lines": [ 9.233333, 9.263636, 9.95248, 10.528048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.98, "volume": 50625843, "typical_volume": 29377685.3, "trend": 11.165625, "fair_value": 9.993236, "relative_strength": -18.161628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.180326, "energy": 35.54985, "activity_lines": [ 9.513333, 9.361273, 9.900567, 10.448562 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }