{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93697970-9937-4200-8ea1-90e1b36437d1", "symbol": "000878", "name": "Yunnan Copper Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.609, "architecture_energy": 43.546, "architecture_maturity": 48.056, "architecture_confidence": 86.539, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.53, "rotation_up": 23.85, "upward_expansion": 5.96, "deceleration": 59.21, "rotation_down": 51.36, "downward_expansion": 79.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.89, 15.979454, 16.81671, 17.740705 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.219999, "trend_reference": 19.192237, "distance_from_trend": -0.102762, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.878628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.889262, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.341925, "excess_performance": -0.349324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102762, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271055, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.746102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276433682, "relative_activity": 1.417717, "balance": 0.746102, "dry_up": 1.09081, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098375, "annualized_volatility": 0.567386, "from_high_reference": -0.407799, "from_low_reference": 0.350786 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.192237, "fair_value_reference": 13.878628, "structural_low": 14.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.025709, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.020177, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.300352, "worst_return": -0.117545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.10293, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.127374, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.356676, "worst_return": -0.105812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.199842, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.124143, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.611977, "worst_return": -0.158949, "sufficient": true }, { 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"down", "direction": -81.86536, "energy": 86.060234, "activity_lines": [ 15.438, 16.295533, 17.336989, 18.394495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.03, "volume": 242944012, "typical_volume": 203229034.1, "trend": 19.413736, "fair_value": 13.805906, "relative_strength": -16.491028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.504616, "energy": 77.15772, "activity_lines": [ 15.094, 15.957273, 17.033326, 18.106289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.82, "volume": 158056671, "typical_volume": 198418900.6, "trend": 19.292809, "fair_value": 13.837235, "relative_strength": -10.764551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.468803, "energy": 63.638499, "activity_lines": [ 15.255333, 15.820727, 16.843277, 17.874435 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.219999, "volume": 276433682, "typical_volume": 194985085.6, "trend": 19.192237, "fair_value": 13.878628, "relative_strength": -7.889262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.60931, "energy": 43.545771, "activity_lines": [ 15.89, 15.979454, 16.81671, 17.740705 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }