{ "ticker": { "uuid": "936b656b-2c92-469e-b196-8cd5f6c4c280", "symbol": "300469", "name": "Transportation Telecommunication & Information Development Inc.Ltd.Zhejiang", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.144, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.742, "architecture_energy": 14.512, "architecture_maturity": 46.462, "architecture_confidence": 71.124, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.81, "rotation_up": 24.73, "upward_expansion": 12.22, "deceleration": 54.76, "rotation_down": 34.64, "downward_expansion": 64.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.912, 53.501636, 54.029238, 55.898065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 59.869999, "trend_reference": 58.770667, "distance_from_trend": 0.018705, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.530705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.733819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.161252, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082171, "excess_performance": -0.089571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018705, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056029, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.733819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038245, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082171, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.592598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40131460, "relative_activity": 1.142295, "balance": 0.592598, "dry_up": 1.339726, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140214, "annualized_volatility": 0.866317, "from_high_reference": -0.352757, "from_low_reference": 0.583025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.770667, "fair_value_reference": 34.530705, "structural_low": 37.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001416, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.007119, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.542339, "worst_return": -0.309456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043247, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.004368, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.571195, "worst_return": -0.19486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.443338, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.448197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.118952, "worst_return": -0.267782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -11.197588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.719666, "energy": 18.466192, "activity_lines": [ 54.742667, 54.366, 55.564476, 57.731355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.830002, "volume": 46166037, "typical_volume": 35093161.6, "trend": 59.898666, "fair_value": 33.943782, "relative_strength": -12.401701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.886701, "energy": 18.212448, "activity_lines": [ 54.820667, 54.129819, 55.182857, 57.320344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.130001, "volume": 51511994, "typical_volume": 35978319.2, "trend": 59.181667, "fair_value": 34.071346, "relative_strength": -31.442989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.343255, "energy": 36.881891, "activity_lines": [ 50.901334, 51.903819, 53.762286, 56.173979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.869999, "volume": 50461128, "typical_volume": 35554732.8, "trend": 58.835, "fair_value": 34.279551, "relative_strength": -10.980827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.458926, "energy": 27.038977, "activity_lines": [ 51.533334, 52.144546, 53.564476, 55.83129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.869999, "volume": 40131460, "typical_volume": 35132305.25, "trend": 58.770667, "fair_value": 34.530705, "relative_strength": -6.161252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.742085, "energy": 14.512331, "activity_lines": [ 53.912, 53.501636, 54.029238, 55.898065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }