{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9370cd8d-3e6a-4ec4-a389-04e59f998ad4", "symbol": "4336", "name": "Mulkia Gulf Real Estate REIT", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 65.064, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.762, "architecture_energy": 38.038, "architecture_maturity": 2.115, "architecture_confidence": 59.624, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.05, "rotation_up": 17.0, "upward_expansion": 23.1, "deceleration": 51.85, "rotation_down": 63.19, "downward_expansion": 48.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.515415, 4.54569, 4.56537, 4.548656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.52, "trend_reference": 4.526531, "distance_from_trend": -0.001443, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.821452, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062523, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.300279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008772, "excess_performance": 0.023057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001443, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013003, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003027, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008772, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.600018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 218251, "relative_activity": 0.651938, "balance": 2.600018, "dry_up": 1.011549, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013382, "annualized_volatility": 0.070325, "from_high_reference": -0.033046, "from_low_reference": 0.069604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.526531, "fair_value_reference": 4.821452, "structural_low": 4.225862, "invalidation": "A renewed decline 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"2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.075951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019956, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024445, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.597908, "energy": 20.822348, "activity_lines": [ 4.546585, 4.575962, 4.574075, 4.551387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.490522, "volume": 235810, "typical_volume": 337052.9, "trend": 4.525921, "fair_value": 4.829674, "relative_strength": 3.070853, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.367731, "energy": 34.553591, "activity_lines": [ 4.521438, 4.556969, 4.568551, 4.549038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.52, "volume": 218251, "typical_volume": 334772.6, "trend": 4.526531, "fair_value": 4.821452, "relative_strength": 1.300279, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.761773, "energy": 38.037845, "activity_lines": [ 4.515415, 4.54569, 4.56537, 4.548656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }