{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "937b08d7-3692-4080-92ea-61536d69170a",
    "symbol": "FORTY",
    "name": "Formula Systems 1985 Ltd ADR",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -60.786,
    "architecture_energy": 41.385,
    "architecture_maturity": 31.245,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.979,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 25.31,
        "rotation_up": 20.98,
        "upward_expansion": 4.97,
        "deceleration": 56.41,
        "rotation_down": 53.73,
        "downward_expansion": 78.31
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        109.65736,
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        115.946931,
        117.293496
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 108.75,
    "trend_reference": 120.743559,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.099331,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 91.658209,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186473,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -25.682532,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.101432,
    "excess_performance": -0.288886,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.099331,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.097045,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.186473,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.356434,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.256825,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.162029,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101432,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.825576,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1340,
      "relative_activity": 0.567004,
      "balance": 0.825576,
      "dry_up": 1.012779,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.077002,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.417427,
      "from_high_reference": -0.373898,
      "from_low_reference": 0.07864
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 120.743559,
      "fair_value_reference": 91.658209,
      "structural_low": 100.821421,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": -0.008416,
        "positive_rate": 0.47619,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.52381,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00214,
        "regime_survival": 0.809524,
        "best_return": 0.168576,
        "worst_return": -0.188062,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.06525,
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        "worst_return": -0.186811,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.014509,
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        "worst_return": -0.199148,
        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "worst_return": -0.352071,
        "sufficient": false
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        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-08-23",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": 0.075932,
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "typical_volume": 1712.95,
        "trend": 133.279264,
        "fair_value": 86.486783,
        "relative_strength": -7.007496,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -40.629404,
        "energy": 24.267179,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 1710.65,
        "trend": 133.231325,
        "fair_value": 86.876167,
        "relative_strength": -14.099415,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "energy": 22.514243,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 2369,
        "typical_volume": 1737.8,
        "trend": 133.277267,
        "fair_value": 87.340108,
        "relative_strength": -9.479676,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "energy": 21.563427,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 129.308866,
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        "typical_volume": 1816.4,
        "trend": 133.2279,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "energy": 21.956547,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 1879.4,
        "trend": 133.556103,
        "fair_value": 88.271217,
        "relative_strength": -7.62776,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "direction": 15.117652,
        "energy": 28.064932,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 1946.3,
        "trend": 133.720477,
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        "relative_strength": -14.326829,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 1620,
        "typical_volume": 1986.7,
        "trend": 133.446573,
        "fair_value": 89.139781,
        "relative_strength": -14.635498,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.253615,
        "energy": 21.416257,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 117.5,
        "volume": 3531,
        "typical_volume": 2115.7,
        "trend": 132.547527,
        "fair_value": 89.463431,
        "relative_strength": -22.097701,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 89.75505,
        "relative_strength": -26.810084,
        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 33.955913,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 2063,
        "typical_volume": 2123.2,
        "trend": 130.761139,
        "fair_value": 90.016637,
        "relative_strength": -27.461451,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.777351,
        "energy": 53.034388,
        "activity_lines": [
          114.742667,
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          123.913641
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 107.0,
        "volume": 1946,
        "typical_volume": 2107.7,
        "trend": 129.196109,
        "fair_value": 90.284566,
        "relative_strength": -27.26921,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.422712,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 111.03,
        "volume": 3185,
        "typical_volume": 2224.9,
        "trend": 127.589373,
        "fair_value": 90.55945,
        "relative_strength": -25.41071,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.042654,
        "energy": 71.990078,
        "activity_lines": [
          109.73,
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          119.60144,
          121.208657
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 108.0,
        "volume": 1363,
        "typical_volume": 2212.8,
        "trend": 125.778153,
        "fair_value": 90.81135,
        "relative_strength": -23.923218,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.351647,
        "energy": 74.455318,
        "activity_lines": [
          108.734667,
          113.721798,
          118.517968,
          119.944827
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 114.0,
        "volume": 5167,
        "typical_volume": 2368.75,
        "trend": 123.788363,
        "fair_value": 91.136246,
        "relative_strength": -18.102092,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.57111,
        "energy": 48.229114,
        "activity_lines": [
          110.372667,
          112.815818,
          117.995902,
          119.184946
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 108.0201,
        "volume": 1704,
        "typical_volume": 2412.9,
        "trend": 122.299203,
        "fair_value": 91.404779,
        "relative_strength": -22.579166,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.15729,
        "energy": 42.455515,
        "activity_lines": [
          109.944033,
          111.100927,
          116.919581,
          118.167639
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 108.75,
        "volume": 1340,
        "typical_volume": 2363.3,
        "trend": 120.743559,
        "fair_value": 91.658209,
        "relative_strength": -25.682532,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.786012,
        "energy": 41.385018,
        "activity_lines": [
          109.65736,
          110.082925,
          115.946931,
          117.293496
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}