{ "ticker": { "uuid": "937cc13d-93cb-42ec-ad5c-d9019b5397a0", "symbol": "300195", "name": "Masterwork Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.529, "architecture_energy": 57.411, "architecture_maturity": 56.399, "architecture_confidence": 95.79, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 22.04, "upward_expansion": 9.53, "deceleration": 54.46, "rotation_down": 59.31, "downward_expansion": 82.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.104, 5.278492, 5.750575, 6.325558 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.45, "trend_reference": 7.095879, "distance_from_trend": -0.231949, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.313759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136806, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.30924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.359577, "excess_performance": -0.366977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231949, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115668, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136806, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242965, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.359577, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76056060, "relative_activity": 1.548526, "balance": 0.425917, "dry_up": 1.347805, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128305, "annualized_volatility": 0.50871, "from_high_reference": -0.438144, "from_low_reference": 0.227477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.095879, "fair_value_reference": 6.313759, "structural_low": 4.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.001171, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006347, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.266033, "worst_return": -0.181159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.106449, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02771, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.53616, "worst_return": -0.223647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.036624, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.064606, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.546135, "worst_return": -0.202783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 5.644047, 5.795683, 6.386602, 6.925248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.92, "volume": 75339986, "typical_volume": 51093669.65, "trend": 7.400879, "fair_value": 6.336451, "relative_strength": -36.739653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.256217, "energy": 63.620286, "activity_lines": [ 5.402081, 5.594477, 6.186095, 6.758911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.66, "volume": 56702213, "typical_volume": 49426880.2, "trend": 7.284879, "fair_value": 6.326387, "relative_strength": -39.53872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.844821, "energy": 68.122752, "activity_lines": [ 5.113992, 5.384179, 5.983112, 6.58208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.04, "volume": 56692274, "typical_volume": 48085378.8, "trend": 7.181213, "fair_value": 6.318374, "relative_strength": -32.871462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.265507, "energy": 73.528224, "activity_lines": [ 4.997165, 5.279881, 5.838225, 6.437249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.45, "volume": 76056060, "typical_volume": 49115127.3, "trend": 7.095879, "fair_value": 6.313759, "relative_strength": -30.30924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.528607, "energy": 57.410632, "activity_lines": [ 5.104, 5.278492, 5.750575, 6.325558 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }