{ "ticker": { "uuid": "937d4950-6d51-4bab-b872-355ef5634379", "symbol": "EH", "name": "Ehang Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.839, "architecture_energy": 65.109, "architecture_maturity": 99.553, "architecture_confidence": 95.975, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 22.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 49.41, "rotation_down": 63.76, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.316667, 5.644818, 7.01369, 8.046183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.74, "trend_reference": 9.4945, "distance_from_trend": -0.395439, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.989231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.617058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.010692, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.518456, "excess_performance": -0.70591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.395439, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226118, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.617058, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.600107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168515, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.518456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.499333, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2685780, "relative_activity": 0.617049, "balance": 0.499333, "dry_up": 0.845816, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.202419, "annualized_volatility": 0.663682, "from_high_reference": -0.715842, "from_low_reference": 0.175026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.4945, "fair_value_reference": 14.989231, "structural_low": 4.885, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.047391, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.076041, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.833333, "worst_return": -0.342455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.139551, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.121495, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 1.846154, "worst_return": -0.464286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.156693, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.278078, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.926083, "worst_return": -0.586599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09988, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.217203, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.351648, "worst_return": -0.719136, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.266063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002056, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.496602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.450925, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188185, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102809, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147213, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042566, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.207937, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.597475, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.565, "volume": 4185444, "typical_volume": 4217334.7, "trend": 13.199833, "fair_value": 18.319199, "relative_strength": 42.529128, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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8.977118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.9, "volume": 4365674, "typical_volume": 4498618.65, "trend": 10.078833, "fair_value": 15.184167, "relative_strength": -65.481241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.381544, "energy": 87.014934, "activity_lines": [ 5.366667, 6.112818, 7.5985, 8.625366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.13, "volume": 3044723, "typical_volume": 4416074.5, "trend": 9.7685, "fair_value": 15.08359, "relative_strength": -63.269672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.591153, "energy": 80.907678, "activity_lines": [ 5.206667, 5.781091, 7.261048, 8.306086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.74, "volume": 2685780, "typical_volume": 4352622.3, "trend": 9.4945, "fair_value": 14.989231, "relative_strength": -60.010692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.838564, "energy": 65.109088, "activity_lines": [ 5.316667, 5.644818, 7.01369, 8.046183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }