{ "ticker": { "uuid": "937d4db9-c3ed-430c-ac23-dd894eed8a1e", "symbol": "IBIK", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS OCT 2034 TERM TIPS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 72.073, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.225, "architecture_energy": 55.367, "architecture_maturity": 29.252, "architecture_confidence": 91.923, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.76, "rotation_up": 23.56, "upward_expansion": 11.02, "deceleration": 43.6, "rotation_down": 53.34, "downward_expansion": 84.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.041, 25.082225, 25.182495, 25.316706 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.06, "trend_reference": 25.473121, "distance_from_trend": -0.016218, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.743804, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012779, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.593595, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025959, "excess_performance": -0.151584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016218, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012779, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015433, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.032234, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110150, "relative_activity": 1.877234, "balance": 1.032234, "dry_up": 1.118437, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008088, "annualized_volatility": 0.05542, "from_high_reference": -0.040453, "from_low_reference": 0.004812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.473121, "fair_value_reference": 24.743804, "structural_low": 24.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.00664, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003484, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.003076, "worst_return": -0.010203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007418, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012649, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.491674, "energy": 46.409399, "activity_lines": [ 25.09583, 25.123161, 25.248447, 25.378661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.98, "volume": 58474, "typical_volume": 55130.65, "trend": 25.491006, "fair_value": 24.741055, "relative_strength": -10.16289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.087772, "energy": 63.122857, "activity_lines": [ 25.046667, 25.094585, 25.209738, 25.344513 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.06, "volume": 110150, "typical_volume": 58676.75, "trend": 25.473121, "fair_value": 24.743804, "relative_strength": -12.593595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.225039, "energy": 55.367318, "activity_lines": [ 25.041, 25.082225, 25.182495, 25.316706 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }