{ "ticker": { "uuid": "937fd33c-82a8-429f-8220-d20c4c798da4", "symbol": "FIPP", "name": "Frontier IP Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.594, "architecture_energy": 40.913, "architecture_maturity": 8.44, "architecture_confidence": 73.461, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.1, "rotation_up": 20.16, "upward_expansion": 25.22, "deceleration": 48.24, "rotation_down": 61.14, "downward_expansion": 52.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.136667, 0.140682, 0.150067, 0.148417 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.1325, "trend_reference": 0.1441, "distance_from_trend": -0.0805, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.277577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.522655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.183042, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.06, "excess_performance": 0.008765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0805, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066408, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.522655, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144788, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572379, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 340171, "relative_activity": 0.26268, "balance": 0.572379, "dry_up": 1.432041, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151419, "annualized_volatility": 0.966532, "from_high_reference": -0.490385, "from_low_reference": 0.325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1441, "fair_value_reference": 0.277577, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013793, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.005, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.12, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.083333, "worst_return": -0.158621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.305556, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.265922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.28, "worst_return": -0.358621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.386207, 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"2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.132075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.312865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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0.146091, 0.153357, 0.149758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1375, "volume": 1768409, "typical_volume": 1302827.7, "trend": 0.145017, "fair_value": 0.279708, "relative_strength": -21.952309, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.399025, "energy": 31.14296, "activity_lines": [ 0.139667, 0.143591, 0.151986, 0.149225 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1325, "volume": 340171, "typical_volume": 1295002.9, "trend": 0.1441, "fair_value": 0.277577, "relative_strength": -24.183042, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.594349, "energy": 40.91313, "activity_lines": [ 0.136667, 0.140682, 0.150067, 0.148417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }