{ "ticker": { "uuid": "938494ea-0f65-451d-8c43-b003a95f384b", "symbol": "ZWHC", "name": "BMO Covered Call Health Care ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.042, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.565, "architecture_energy": 39.484, "architecture_maturity": 27.599, "architecture_confidence": 48.602, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.19, "rotation_up": 56.86, "upward_expansion": 51.89, "deceleration": 44.7, "rotation_down": 24.92, "downward_expansion": 12.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.544786, 27.406616, 26.770667, 26.633285 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.879999, "trend_reference": 26.676241, "distance_from_trend": 0.045125, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.864637, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07792, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.024326, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018956, "excess_performance": -0.101466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045125, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110077, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088402, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018956, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.967181, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2500, "relative_activity": 0.277316, "balance": 0.967181, "dry_up": 1.356073, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027213, "annualized_volatility": 0.146791, "from_high_reference": -0.025248, "from_low_reference": 0.138585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.676241, "fair_value_reference": 25.864637, "structural_low": 24.59091, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002863, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000809, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.018418, "worst_return": -0.02515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.015516, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060105, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079882, "worst_return": -0.110915, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.055273, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.165185, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008778, "worst_return": -0.119325, "sufficient": false }, { 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-7.542768, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.845154, "energy": 61.179385, "activity_lines": [ 27.405578, 26.923792, 26.393499, 26.463322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.363358, "volume": 8700, "typical_volume": 10975.0, "trend": 26.692758, "fair_value": 25.814534, "relative_strength": -6.649055, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.343037, "energy": 58.061563, "activity_lines": [ 27.440251, 27.087894, 26.504003, 26.506469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.469999, "volume": 7800, "typical_volume": 9875.0, "trend": 26.691578, "fair_value": 25.839991, "relative_strength": -5.644098, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.850071, "energy": 37.664098, "activity_lines": [ 27.432048, 27.227444, 26.620576, 26.556613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.879999, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 9015.0, "trend": 26.676241, "fair_value": 25.864637, "relative_strength": -7.024326, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.564949, "energy": 39.483967, "activity_lines": [ 27.544786, 27.406616, 26.770667, 26.633285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }