{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "938a70cf-b3af-48e2-b685-a5c895031ade",
    "symbol": "QQQE",
    "name": "DIREXION NASDAQ-100(R) EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX SHARES",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 61.682,
    "architecture_energy": 38.253,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.997,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.085,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.36,
        "rotation_up": 39.83,
        "upward_expansion": 62.66,
        "deceleration": 85.32,
        "rotation_down": 27.42,
        "downward_expansion": 21.66
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        118.568,
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        117.021147,
        113.72896
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 121.96,
    "trend_reference": 109.881373,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.109924,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 93.156098,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3092,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.809337,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.191232,
    "excess_performance": 0.003778,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.109924,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053145,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.3092,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037566,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008093,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067522,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.191232,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.411426,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 993518,
      "relative_activity": 1.012473,
      "balance": 1.411426,
      "dry_up": 0.929626,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.033879,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.164798,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008972,
      "from_low_reference": 0.275199
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 109.881373,
      "fair_value_reference": 93.156098,
      "structural_low": 95.64,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.034837,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022657,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.074634,
        "worst_return": -0.022896,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.030488,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.047999,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.119919,
        "worst_return": 0.010058,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.092735,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.061574,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.140029,
        "worst_return": -0.060771,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.021965,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.081125,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.278102,
        "worst_return": -0.235159,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012737,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.003912,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044774,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.049583,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064833,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.011669,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009997,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.178871,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064397,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.05935,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 91.837518,
        "relative_strength": 0.379739,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1128262.1,
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        "fair_value": 92.114865,
        "relative_strength": -0.901582,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 116.8,
        "volume": 743512,
        "typical_volume": 1081604.2,
        "trend": 108.428646,
        "fair_value": 92.363644,
        "relative_strength": 0.230258,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.675303,
        "energy": 52.330581,
        "activity_lines": [
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          111.930633
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 115.41,
        "volume": 1098311,
        "typical_volume": 1049923.85,
        "trend": 108.820668,
        "fair_value": 92.598302,
        "relative_strength": 0.740672,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.6473,
        "energy": 39.427362,
        "activity_lines": [
          117.670667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 117.07,
        "volume": 813547,
        "typical_volume": 991860.6,
        "trend": 109.31661,
        "fair_value": 92.85823,
        "relative_strength": 1.683204,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.859127,
        "energy": 31.442115,
        "activity_lines": [
          117.250667,
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          116.113174,
          112.913257
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 121.96,
        "volume": 993518,
        "typical_volume": 981278.4,
        "trend": 109.881373,
        "fair_value": 93.156098,
        "relative_strength": 0.809337,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.681972,
        "energy": 38.252675,
        "activity_lines": [
          118.568,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}