{ "ticker": { "uuid": "938af3ff-303b-4630-bd37-7d1546beddfb", "symbol": "DFTK", "name": "DF Deutsche Forfait AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.87, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.814, "architecture_energy": 37.364, "architecture_maturity": 61.573, "architecture_confidence": 75.345, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.16, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 10.97, "deceleration": 58.69, "rotation_down": 39.17, "downward_expansion": 72.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.611667, 1.612909, 1.639, 1.784516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.65, "trend_reference": 2.015, "distance_from_trend": -0.181141, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.65588, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.548649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035088, "excess_performance": -0.099727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087621, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003551, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03069, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.630674, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4403, "relative_activity": 0.490629, "balance": 1.630674, "dry_up": 0.471574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088345, "annualized_volatility": 2.213198, "from_high_reference": -0.907303, "from_low_reference": 0.774194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.015, "fair_value_reference": 1.65588, "structural_low": 1.445, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.006711, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.032275, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.807107, "worst_return": -0.197183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.031446, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.017324, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.204225, "worst_return": -0.16129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051747, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.228873, "worst_return": -0.178948, "sufficient": true }, { 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1.77669, 1.913183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.685, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 63188.0, "trend": 1.917833, "fair_value": 1.67782, "relative_strength": -8.690874, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.14875, "energy": 55.542162, "activity_lines": [ 1.640667, 1.630273, 1.732976, 1.899333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.54, "volume": 2377, "typical_volume": 25902.0, "trend": 1.931833, "fair_value": 1.670988, "relative_strength": -14.043098, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.419194, "energy": 49.76169, "activity_lines": [ 1.615, 1.609727, 1.697905, 1.874957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.6, "volume": 3488, "typical_volume": 18408.55, "trend": 1.950833, "fair_value": 1.665035, "relative_strength": -9.721098, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.408386, "energy": 40.184831, "activity_lines": [ 1.611667, 1.605909, 1.675976, 1.853548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.595, "volume": 1229, "typical_volume": 13860.75, "trend": 1.971833, "fair_value": 1.66202, "relative_strength": -10.815442, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.580687, "energy": 45.462677, "activity_lines": [ 1.603, 1.603818, 1.658143, 1.830591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 7808, "typical_volume": 11948.5, "trend": 1.992333, "fair_value": 1.658913, "relative_strength": -12.157557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.168812, "energy": 44.965815, "activity_lines": [ 1.596333, 1.603182, 1.64519, 1.806602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.65, "volume": 4403, "typical_volume": 8974.2, "trend": 2.015, "fair_value": 1.65588, "relative_strength": -11.548649, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.814207, "energy": 37.363533, "activity_lines": [ 1.611667, 1.612909, 1.639, 1.784516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }