{ "ticker": { "uuid": "938c4e1f-4734-46ba-99fa-9a1e9cd43114", "symbol": "GCFE", "name": "Guardian Canadian Focused Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.101, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.061, "architecture_energy": 95.02, "architecture_maturity": 36.461, "architecture_confidence": 66.98, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.17, "rotation_up": 87.7, "upward_expansion": 99.77, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 9.07, "downward_expansion": 21.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.049999, 38.661273, 38.189095, 37.849613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 39.509998, "trend_reference": 37.423, "distance_from_trend": 0.055768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.298274, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396198, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.273523, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084546, "excess_performance": -0.035876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.396198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034419, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084546, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.653419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 813, "relative_activity": 0.345656, "balance": 1.653419, "dry_up": 0.422504, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01139, "annualized_volatility": 0.090266, "from_high_reference": -0.009775, "from_low_reference": 0.247709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.423, "fair_value_reference": 28.298274, "structural_low": 35.84, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021565, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.005951, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.064207, "worst_return": -0.044721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039259, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001553, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134319, "worst_return": -0.021135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.104843, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030613, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.110345, "worst_return": 0.099342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.700001, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 9859.85, "trend": 36.986238, "fair_value": 28.066951, "relative_strength": -0.568312, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.296367, "energy": 88.279428, "activity_lines": [ 38.345334, 38.095637, 37.734905, 37.47294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.560001, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 2542.15, "trend": 37.156333, "fair_value": 28.14137, "relative_strength": -1.078778, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.008682, "energy": 88.563446, "activity_lines": [ 38.471334, 38.214001, 37.84562, 37.574473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.209999, "volume": 1062, "typical_volume": 2395.2, "trend": 37.299, "fair_value": 28.219318, "relative_strength": 1.092823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.596273, "energy": 94.914108, "activity_lines": [ 38.756667, 38.421455, 38.009715, 37.706968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.509998, "volume": 813, "typical_volume": 2352.05, "trend": 37.423, "fair_value": 28.298274, "relative_strength": -1.273523, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.061354, "energy": 95.019937, "activity_lines": [ 39.049999, 38.661273, 38.189095, 37.849613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }