{ "ticker": { "uuid": "938c8817-96f2-45ee-9dc6-8769e31ca9bb", "symbol": "DOX", "name": "Doxee S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.965, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.545, "architecture_energy": 46.997, "architecture_maturity": 9.006, "architecture_confidence": 95.368, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.44, "rotation_up": 16.19, "upward_expansion": 8.27, "deceleration": 44.18, "rotation_down": 57.85, "downward_expansion": 81.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.795333, 3.826909, 3.986048, 4.014946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.79, "trend_reference": 4.043, "distance_from_trend": -0.062577, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.984503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.269893, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.223076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088942, "excess_performance": -0.259834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.269893, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.408758, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088942, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.463625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5250, "relative_activity": 0.105634, "balance": 0.463625, "dry_up": 0.223843, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06231, "annualized_volatility": 0.344473, "from_high_reference": -0.253937, "from_low_reference": 0.75463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.043, "fair_value_reference": 2.984503, "structural_low": 3.57, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.023195, "positive_rate": 0.28125, "directional_follow_through": 0.71875, "median_excess_return": -0.040212, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.482517, "worst_return": -0.320988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.119693, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.166809, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.349206, "worst_return": -0.511111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.236395, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.323651, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.270833, "worst_return": -0.64908, "sufficient": true }, { 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4.294, 4.187571, 4.134839 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 4.0, "volume": 3250, "typical_volume": 75250.0, "trend": 4.074333, "fair_value": 3.142837, "relative_strength": -3.984585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.813934, "energy": 13.994522, "activity_lines": [ 4.163333, 4.248545, 4.174762, 4.13172 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 3.93, "volume": 3250, "typical_volume": 61550.0, "trend": 4.066333, "fair_value": 3.116747, "relative_strength": -3.547378, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.433156, "energy": 18.808721, "activity_lines": [ 4.056667, 4.190545, 4.156095, 4.122409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.79, "volume": 3250, "typical_volume": 57675.0, "trend": 4.061, "fair_value": 3.091362, "relative_strength": -10.343102, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.146044, "energy": 28.970054, "activity_lines": [ 3.943333, 4.108364, 4.12519, 4.104581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.67, "volume": 8750, "typical_volume": 55637.5, "trend": 4.055, "fair_value": 3.068093, "relative_strength": -13.430373, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.017905, "energy": 49.215709, "activity_lines": [ 3.832667, 4.008364, 4.085, 4.079355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.77, "volume": 5750, "typical_volume": 53025.0, "trend": 4.052333, "fair_value": 3.047067, "relative_strength": -10.397348, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.768155, "energy": 54.364996, "activity_lines": [ 3.784, 3.937636, 4.055619, 4.060968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.83, "volume": 19750, "typical_volume": 51275.0, "trend": 4.053333, "fair_value": 3.026106, "relative_strength": -9.469134, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.18156, "energy": 59.940234, "activity_lines": [ 3.783333, 3.893636, 4.034238, 4.046624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.82, "volume": 13750, "typical_volume": 50287.5, "trend": 4.047667, "fair_value": 3.00508, "relative_strength": -10.791736, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.216137, "energy": 52.951481, "activity_lines": [ 3.790667, 3.856545, 4.01181, 4.03157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.79, "volume": 5250, "typical_volume": 49700.0, "trend": 4.043, "fair_value": 2.984503, "relative_strength": -14.223076, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.545221, "energy": 46.99695, "activity_lines": [ 3.795333, 3.826909, 3.986048, 4.014946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }