{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93995f4d-4522-4fb1-84c5-9539aea98ba2", "symbol": "600648", "name": "Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.689, "architecture_energy": 29.265, "architecture_maturity": 84.537, "architecture_confidence": 82.463, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.2, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 19.21, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 24.92, "downward_expansion": 64.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.717333, 8.508854, 8.893841, 9.263584 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.04, "trend_reference": 9.712232, "distance_from_trend": -0.069215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.163586, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.112568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.146364, "excess_performance": -0.103161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11055, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036723, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.002953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15801363, "relative_activity": 1.391992, "balance": 1.002953, "dry_up": 1.322174, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052267, "annualized_volatility": 0.216348, "from_high_reference": -0.232598, "from_low_reference": 0.166624 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.712232, "fair_value_reference": 10.163586, "structural_low": 7.748852, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.002119, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.00808, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.08587, "worst_return": -0.169048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005892, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003757, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.086134, "worst_return": -0.09763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01283, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012663, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.385831, "worst_return": -0.224787, "sufficient": true }, { 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9.793899, "fair_value": 10.181941, "relative_strength": -15.658838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.162861, "energy": 61.638536, "activity_lines": [ 8.324809, 8.394016, 8.994336, 9.375915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.76, "volume": 20117012, "typical_volume": 11659329.55, "trend": 9.747232, "fair_value": 10.172447, "relative_strength": -11.999914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.724537, "energy": 46.606611, "activity_lines": [ 8.506191, 8.416435, 8.926827, 9.309211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.04, "volume": 15801363, "typical_volume": 11351615.25, "trend": 9.712232, "fair_value": 10.163586, "relative_strength": -11.112568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.688591, "energy": 29.265406, "activity_lines": [ 8.717333, 8.508854, 8.893841, 9.263584 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }